The Die Is Cast--Russia Has Failed in Its Misbegotten Effort to Take Over Ukraine--History Speaks With Authority--Our Long Term Goal
MAY 30, 2023
I just finished reading Andrew Robert's magisterial biography of King George III who reigned during the US-British Revolutionary War. There is a lesson from this history which I believe bears on what we are witnessing today as Ukraine fights for its independence.
Let me explain.
The timing of America's seeking and achieving its independence could have varied to some degree. If the British had not pursued taxing the colonies as they did (and incidentally had every right to do--the colonies were more lightly taxed than England itself) the outbreak of the Revolution might have been delayed. But there could have been no doubt that as the nation matured and its population grew (it was doubling every 25 years in the 1700s), its citizens would eventually gain the confidence and motivation to seek and gain their independence.
It is not surprising that it took almost a decade for the King and most of the British contemporary leaders to recognize that reality. (It takes a long time for people to accept what they don't want to accept).
British soldiers fighting far from their home, many of them mercenaries just like many of the soldiers fighting for Russia today, proved to be no match for the American soldiers fighting on their own ground for their homes and freedom. And , importantly, America was supported in its fight for independence ,by Francie and Spain, just as Ukraine is supported today by the forces of NATO. In fact, for all practical purposes the outcome of the Revolutionary War was decided by 1778. But the war dragged on and soldiers died for three more years
Russia, led by Putin, is in some ways reliving what happened to Britain fighting the colonies. And also what happened 40+ years ago to Russia in Afghanistan, and what happened to the US in Vietnam, and what happened to the US in Afghanistan. He is pursuing an un-winnable war against patriots fighting on their home ground.
I don't know how long this cruel and killing war will continue or what the precise terms will be. And I expect there may be a continuing "frozen conflict". But I see no doubt that Ukraine will become a vibrant independent nation akin to Poland and other countries in Central Europe. Ukrainians and their leaders led by President Zelensky have demonstrated as clearly as possible that their commitment to independence cannot be denied.
The biggest task of the West as we move forward is to now support Ukraine as fully as necessary to ensure this outcome and at the same time maintain a longterm vision to eventually bring Russia into a security arrangement with the West which respect its history, culture, power and rightful role at the table.
Indeed, as I have thought about this further, I believe is will only be when Russia and Ukraine are both integrated into a viable security arrangement with the West, even if not identical in their form, that a "frozen conflict"between Russia and Ukraine will be eliminated and peaceful coexistence between these two neighboring countries assured.
To acknowledge this is not likely to happen in my lifetime nor during the rule of Vladimir Putin should not dissuade us from pursuing this as our longterm goal.
We had the opportunity to do this in the early years of this century. We must not fail again.
To those who believe that Russia is not destined as a nation to ever be part of a broader European coalition, remember that it was allied with Francie and England in WW I, that Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is leavened with French (as just one small example of the affinity of cultures).
Also remember how unimaginable it was a century ago that Germany would be keystone in a United Europe.
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