Reflections on Iran: Past, Present and Future

I finished reading an excellent book on Iran by Vali Nasr. Here are some reflections I took away. Particularly since the revolution in 1979 and even before, Iran's primary drive was to achieve security, believing with good reason that its regime was threatened by the United States and the West. They saw our country, much as the way Russia has over the last 20-25 years, as threatening to overturn it. Our nation's policy has been characterized by twists and turns, a few times where we sought a negotiated peace, particularly with Obama and earlier with Kissinger; but as time as evolved, especially with the hostage crisis and Iran's support of Hamas and Hezbollah, our two countries have come to see each other as threatening each others very existence and acted accordingly. Iran, a country of 90 million people, with a rich cultural heritage and a foundation which should have led it to become the bright star of the Middle East, was beset by an autocracy under the Shah which led to the emergence of the theologically dominated Khomeini revolution in 1979, with the country cemented in its commitment by the misbegotten war with Iraq from 1980-88, a war which created the regime as Vali Nasr tells in this story (Iran’s Grand Strategy: A Political History). The hostage crisis of 1979-80 cemented the anti-American, anti-Imperialism commitment of the regime and brought together the nation in a perceived fight for existence,. Over the course of almost 50years, there has been the continuing tension between this fight for security, centering on the United States as a satanic enemy, with the continued recognition of Iran’s dismal economic and social development. There have been leaders, Rasfanjani, a prime minster during the 1980s and early 1990s, chief among them, who fought for moderation and who did influence Khomeini but they did not prevail as the hard line Iranian Revolutionary Guard increased in strength and influence. Nasr's book was published just before the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran. We’re seeing history recreated. This war has stilled internal debate for the time being. Iranians have rallied around the nation, if not unanimously, generally. However, in my view, this coming-together does not cure the fundamental tension between isolationism based on the commitment to security and the internal development which will necessarily be fueled by Iran's having to be a member of an important part of the world community. Today, Iran is without reliable allies. To be sure, China and Russia are on the sidelines, cheering this conflict, but they’re really not committed to Iran, not fundamentally. Yes, they may be sending Iran some weapons and buying some of their oil. But they’re not allies, and Iran cannot thrive, let alone survive, if it does not find a path to join with important parts of the world led by an administration that truly does favor economic development. I do not believe that this can happen without a fundamental change in leadership. However, sadly, this war has put off that change for the time being. We were closer to it before the war than we are now due to the patriotic cry that the war represents to the population. But the cracks and fissures will reappear, and if we can reach a settlement that will restore peace and allow the process of political dissent to emerge, even if slowly, we could see Iran reach a point of peace for its nation underpinned by collaboration with significant partners, certainly in the Middle East but also China and the West. That should be our goal. As I write this on May 12, 2026, we are wallowing in Iran. I don’t know if we have ever had a president that is so inept and incapable of leading as Donald Trump. Our country deserves so much better from its president. And from the people supporting the president, too. I think of the quality of the cabinets that served Presidents Kennedy, Roosevelt and Reagan and Biden. The current cabinet is a revolving turnstile. It lacks the people of character and competence we need. Rubio comes close, but he is not standing up when he should. It’s a travesty and a danger for this country and for the world. We’ll survive this. We have such a strong constitutional government and, at its heart, a people that is united in its search for freedom and decency and success. But we need a strong, unifying, character filled President to emerge and take office in 2028. That is a must. Reply, Reply All or Forward