Whither Ukraine?

I wrote this on the eve (one month before).of Russia's invading Ukraine, 4 years ago today. Leaders have failed to identify and implement an agreement for a lasting peace. Hundreds of thousands men and women have lost their lives as a result. Infrastructure has been decimated. It is all so senseless, cruel and unnecessary. May that agreement come soon. Lives are being lost as I type this. Whither Ukraine? January 27, 2022 Whither Ukraine? This is such a maddening and perplexing issue to me. Here I am on the outside, having read a huge amount of Russian history and a fair amount of Ukrainian history, too. Having come to know and appreciate a good number of Russian men and women whom I respect. Here we are with lots of smart, “well-meaning” people around the table, trying to reach a peaceful solution that has staying power, not a temporary Band-Aid, which is what we have had for at least the past seven years and which has not stopped the bleeding. My thoughts start with the people of Ukraine and the nation of Ukraine. What is right for them? How can this suffering be stopped? The uncertainty reduced? My thoughts continue with asking what is in the interest of Russia, the Russian people, and the people in the West? You know what they all want more than anything? It is Peace ...Peace in their lives. You ask yourself: Who really needs Ukraine, other than Ukrainians? Russia doesn't need it. Yes, they need to be assured that there isn’t a competitive force like NATO there on their borders, threatening them. They need to know that the relationship of Ukraine with Russia will be strong, economically, socially, as it has been for much of history. But they don’t need the land; they don’t need the economic resources. They need access to them, yes, just like they need access to resources in Germany and many other countries, but not in an exclusive sense. NATO doesn't’need Ukraine. To the contrary, it’s the last thing it needs. It can’t and wouldn't defend Ukraine. Ukraine wouldn’t be ready for NATO even if it were right for them to join. They have their own huge issues to deal with and they need support and not competition among contending nations to resolve them. The U.S. doesn't’ need Ukraine. It’s thousands of miles from us. We have virtually no dependency or relationship with it economically. And, heaven knows, we have an abundance of our own issues at this moment. The Russian people don’t want a war with Ukraine. Yes, they are proud and patriotic and they want to see Russia be respected as a nation. But the last thing the great majority of Russian people want is to see their soldiers mired in Ukraine, as they were for a decade in Afghanistan, and their economy, already challenged, torn further apart because of sanctions that would follow Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. There is a big issue, there is no hiding from it. The majority of the people in the Donbas and Luhansk region have a strong and historically rooted cultural attachment to Russia. If a plebiscite were held today, they might well vote to join Russia. But that doesn't’ have to happen to resolve the issue. It isn't the right way to resolve it. While not fully comparable, we have the example of French-speaking Quebec, where a different language and way of life is honored, including by providing certain identified decision-making rights and autonomy that accrue to that region. Spain has lived, not comfortably admittedly, but without war with Catalonia which has its own language and cultural norms. What has to happen for a solution to be reached? I’m no diplomatic guru. What I suggest below is flawed and incomplete. But it seems to me, from everything I’ve learned, there are a few things to be considered. Discussions to implement the Minsk II accord, this time with the participation of the U.S., need to resume. It seems to me the provisions of this accord include the key elements to achieve a lasting peaceful settlement. They need to provide for the right degree of autonomy for the Donbas and Luhansk regions. There needs to be agreement that Ukraine will not be the site of armed forces for any nation other than Ukraine which pose or appear to pose a threat to a neighboring nation. That is, NATO will not put weapons into Ukraine. At the same time, Russia will remove its troops and military equipment at its border with Ukraine and will not threaten its sovereignty in any other way. We resolved the Cuban Missile crisis in much this way and avoided what could have been WW III. The Soviet Union withdrew its missiles and troops. NATO withdrew its missiles from Turkey which the Soviet Union had seen as a dagger point at its heartland. The attitude toward Ukraine should be: “Live and let live.” Allow Ukraine to develop economic and diplomatic relationships with Russia and the West and whichever other countries they want to. To achieve an agreement of this type, there will need to be the creation of mutual trust and a commitment to achieve the common goal of a peaceful and independent Ukraine free of the impact of intervention by contending forces. This will not be easy. The last seven years of fruitless discussions show that. But the crisis in front of us demands we try. The alternatives are grossly unacceptable. I hope and pray this will be the outcome. Anything else is crazy and counter to the interest of every party. There have been parallels drawn between our (the U.S.) being involved in Ukraine to our becoming involved in Vietnam. The argument there is that what happens in Ukraine is not in our national interest any more than it was in our interest to embark on the ten-year war in Vietnam. I don’t agree with that analogy. I think a peaceful resolution of this boiling issue is both in our interest and in the world’s interest. In shades that make me shudder, however, I see in all this many elements which led up to World War I. Conflagration in a small part of the world, in that case Serbia, leading to a catastrophic war which resulted in over 20 million deaths. Countries went to war, one by one, which really didn’t want to go to war. It all happened as dominoes fell. One thing followed another. We dare not allow that to happen now. Especially in this nuclear age. Posted by John Pepper Email This BlogThis! Share to X Share to Facebook Share to Pinterest

A Sobering, Tragic Look Back on What Trump Has Wrought Today

In august, 1939, just prior to Germany's invasion of Poland, the British Ambassador of Poland was heard to lament that Hitler's rise had taken all the satisfaction out of diplomacy. "Being an ambassador used to be a gentlemen's job, now it's a question of fighting with gangsters... you might as well try to make a deal with Al Capone".

The Power of "Trust"

I recently read two lengthy interviews with the late Joan Didion. At that time, I had not read any of her heralded works of fiction and non-fiction. I knew she had been a regular contributor to "The New York Review of Books". Here is the segment of the interview which impacted me, as it underscored the power of TRUST: Believing in a person, showing you believe, letting them go.... Question: "Three years later you started writing for The New York Review of Books. Was that daunting? In your essay ‘Why I Write’ you express trepidation about intellectual, or ostensibly intellectual, matters. What freed you up enough to do that work for Bob? " The tough editor of the Review. DIDION "His trust. Nothing else. I couldn’t even have imagined it if he hadn’t responded. He recognized that it was a learning experience for me. Domestic politics, for example, was something I simply knew nothing about. And I had no interest. But Bob kept pushing me in that direction. He is really good at ascertaining what might interest you at any given moment and then just throwing a bunch of stuff at you that might or might not be related, and letting you go with it.

We Are Crossing A Line I Have Seen Us Cross Before--60 Years Ago--Over the War In Vietnam

It took hundreds of thousands of lives. Unrelenting domestic protests, first led by students and then by people everywhere. But finally it became unmistakably clear in 1965-66 to President Johnson and Defense Secretary, McNamara. This war which we had entered so reluctantly and had waged, despite the strong outspoken judgement of leaders such as George Ball,and the grave doubts of the President and McNamara themselves--it was NOT winnable. But still..the killing continued. We know it is very difficult for people to admit they are wrong, especially if they have convinced themselves that they are fighting for a just cause. Have we crossed the line now? I cannot be sure. But I am reading a superb book right now, "McNamara At War:A New History" written by Philip and William Taubman. It tells the story of the tragic and ill-fated Vietnam war and the flawed reasoning which led to its escalation. Back then, there was the fear that failing to WIN in Vietnam would give license to communists to take over southeast Asia. Today, Trump and his supporters argue that the actions ICE is taking are needed to overcome the years of open borders. Yet..yet in a matter of about 10 days, TWO US CITIZENS have been shot dead by ICE agents-- most of whom are utterly unprepared to deal with the situations they face. (Again, striking similarity to the unfamiliar situation our troops faced in Vietnam). Today we witness a traumatized five-year old boy being ushered to a police car in the bitter cold. And we see an old man of perhaps my age being led out of his home in his pajamas. (Back then, in 1965, a man protesting immolates himself outside McNamara's office at the Pentagon. McNamara's children privately tell their father his is doing the wrong thing). This morningm I am inspired by the men and women who are still standing out in the freezing cold in Minneapolis, day after day,to protest this enactment of a police state,to support their neighbors and to signal unmistakenably and bravely how they want their community to live and how they want it NOT to live. I have seen this scene before. Sometimes--too often-- the protests have petered out. But sometimes they haven't.They did not in Vietnam.I believe this is a time that they won't peter out. I hope I am right. Will Republican leaders in substantial numbers stand up for what they know is right. They have been unwilling to do that so far.I hope and pray they will today, recognizing our nation's very future is at stake. We have crossed a line, there is no doubt about that. There should be no looking back. I hope there will not be, I further hope that the mid-term elections, nine months from now, will serve as a vivid rebuke to the many self-crippling policies and the all too prevalent immoral character of the Trump Administration. This will be the opportunity for all the voters of our Nation to declare the future they want to experience for themselves and their families.

Tolstoy on Lincoln and the Greatness of His Character

"Now why was Lincoln so great that he overshadows all other national heroes. He was not a great general like Napoleon or Washington; he was not such a skillful statesman as Gladstone or Frederick the great; but his supremacy expresses itself altogether in his peculiar moral power and the greatness of his character"

When Will We Stop The Erosion of Our Democracy

When will we stop this cancer eating away at our national institutions and at the moral order by which we choose to live? What we are witnessing is not a series of isolated excesses. It is a sustained campaign. The Trump administration has repeatedly violated the law, attacked the independence of long-standing institutions, and sought to criminalize conduct that has no rightful place in the criminal code. The sheer volume and brazenness of these actions are so startling that they threaten to numb us into passivity. We see it in the extrajudicial seizure of Venezuela’s strongman, Nicolás Maduro, and in the unvarnished declaration that America’s interest there is oil and control—an unmistakable return to the logic of gunboat diplomacy. We see it in the assault on the Federal Reserve, capped by reckless and unfounded accusations against Jerome Powell. We see it in ICE parading through our streets, wielding fear and, in some cases, leaving death in its wake. We hear it in threats to take Greenland “one way or the other.” We see it in a feckless posture toward Russia amid the ongoing slaughter in Ukraine, and in a craven unwillingness to confront Netanyahu’s government in Israel. The pattern is unmistakable. The beat goes on. Congress has failed to meet this moment. Republicans in Congress, in particular, have abdicated their constitutional responsibility to assert the power of the purse and to ensure that appropriated funds are spent as the Constitution requires. The courts—especially the lower courts—have repeatedly ruled against these abuses. And still the administration presses forward, daring the system to stop it. This is not new in world history. We have seen before what happens when nations slide into the doctrine that “might makes right.” and a majority of the people put their faith in a proclaimed savior to right their grievances. We saw this in Japan and in Nazi Germany under Hitler, and in Fascist Italy under Mussolini. They taught the world that lesson in the 1930s and early 1940s, at an unspeakable cost. After World War II, chastened by catastrophe, we committed ourselves to a different path—building institutions to restrain power and preserve peace: the Marshall Plan, the European Common Market, and the architecture of a rules-based international order. But we grew complacent. We assumed these achievements were permanent. We enjoyed their benefits and mistook hope for vigilance. We failed to reckon honestly with the darker instincts that persist in people and nations alike—the urge to seize land, to dominate, to accumulate power simply because it can be taken. That time of complacency is over. Those of us who consider ourselves moderates can no longer content ourselves with watching events unfold from the sidelines. I applaud the citizens who have taken to the streets to protest ICE. I applaud Jerome Powell for stating clearly that he and the Federal Reserve will not be intimidated. I hope—and expect—that leaders of our cultural institutions, including Presidents of Universities and Lonnie Bunch of the Smithsonian, will say the same. I applaud arts organizations that have withdrawn from the Kennedy Center rather than allow their names to legitimize a cynical and politicized rebranding. There comes a moment when anger is not only justified but necessary. This is that moment. There is a time to speak plainly, without euphemism or apology. That time is now. What is happening cannot stand. Enough is enough. We have had enough. I hope and pray that not only our leaders, but men and women in every walk of life, recognize this for what it is: a direct threat to our democracy and to the way of life we have long cherished and pledged ourselves to defend. The time for detached intellectual rumination has passed. This is the moment for action—thoughtful, yes, but also relentless, courageous, and sustained. There is no other recourse.

It's All About Character

From the moment in 2016 when I first learned that Donald Trump was a candidate running for president, I called out his lack of CHARACTER. His lack of character has manifested itself in ways I never could have imagined, never more than in his inhumane commentary on the murders of Rob Reiner and his wife. I just finished re-watching Reiner's movie, "The American President". “For the last couple of months, Senator Rumson has suggested that being president of this country was to a certain extent about character. And although I have not been willing to engage in his attacks on me, I’ve been here three years and three days. And I can tell you, without hesitation, being president of this country is entirely about character.” In 1995, Rob Reiner directed The American President, written by Aaron Sorkin. In the film, President Andrew Shepherd, a widower, is facing a challenge from Republican presidential hopeful Senator Bob Rumson, who attacks Shepherd by focusing on the activist past of the woman he is dating, lawyer and lobbyist Sydney Ellen Wade. The final scene of the film is a speech by the president rejecting the pretended patriotism of his partisan attacker, who is cynically manipulating voters to gain power. It is a meditation on what it means to be the president of the United States. “For the record, yes, I am a card-carrying member of the ACLU,” Shepherd says to reporters at a press conference, “but the more important question is, why aren’t you, Bob? Now, this is an organization whose sole purpose is to defend the Bill of Rights, so it naturally begs the question, why would a senator, his party’s most powerful spokesman, and a candidate for president choose to reject upholding the Constitution?” “America isn’t easy. America is advanced citizenship. You’ve got to want it bad, ‘cause it’s gonna put up a fight. It’s gonna say: You want free speech? Let’s see you acknowledge a man whose words make your blood boil, who’s standing center stage and advocating at the top of his lungs that which you would spend a lifetime opposing at the top of yours. You want to claim this land as a land of the free? Then the symbol of your country cannot just be a flag. The symbol also has to be one of its citizens exercising his right to burn that flag in protest. Now, show me that. Defend that, celebrate that in your classrooms. Then you can stand up and sing about the land of the free.” “I’ve known Bob Rumson for years, and I’ve been operating under the assumption that the reason Bob devotes so much time and energy to shouting at the rain was that he simply didn’t get it. Well, I was wrong. Bob’s problem isn’t that he doesn’t get it. Bob’s problem is that he can’t sell it. We have serious problems to solve, and we need serious people to solve them. And whatever your particular problem is, I promise you, Bob Rumson is not the least bit interested in solving it. He is interested in two things, and two things only, making you afraid of it and telling you who’s to blame for it. “That, ladies and gentlemen, is how you win elections.” “We’ve got serious problems, and we need serious people. And if you want to talk about character, Bob, you better come at me with more than a burning flag and a membership card.… This is a time for serious people, Bob, and your 15 minutes are up.”