THE U.S., RUSSIA AND UKRAINE – “TIT FOR TAT” – DUELING “EXPERTS” AND
DUELING NARRATIVES – THE DANGER ESCALATES
As we all know, it is hard for an individual or nation to view the
world or a particular situation through the eyes of another person or nation.
I have never seen this more true than what is transpiring now over the Ukrainian
crisis as it is viewed by the United States and Russia.
This is a subject of deep concern because the security of our world is
threatened and we risk losing the need for collaboration on such transcendent
issues as nuclear proliferation and terrorism in Iran and Syria.
I could only look with irony at the statement of Defense Secretary Ash
Carter as reported in the Wall Street
Journal last week that the Pentagon is committing military gear to a NATO
task force designed to deter Russian aggression because Moscow is, in Carter’s
words, trying to “reestablish a Soviet-era sphere of influence.”
How precisely that echoes Russia’s concerns—that the West, and
particularly the United States, has, over the past 20 years, extended its
“sphere of influence” by extending NATO well beyond what was expected in the early
1990s, even to the point of considering expansion to Ukraine and Georgia.
There is a great danger in the affairs of humans and also of nations in
self-fulfilling expectations. These
self-fulfilling expectations can be for the better and they can be for the
worse. The expectations held by
Russia toward the United States and the United States toward Russia today are
all “for the worse.”
We hear veiled and sometimes bald assertions that Russia intends to
enter countries previously part of the Soviet empire--the Baltics, Poland and
all of Ukraine. Putin described
such a notion as “insane.” He
is right. Can you imagine the
sheer idiocy of Russia undertaking to move into those countries? Why would they do this? There is no driving ideology as there might
have been in the case of Soviet Communism. Surely, Russia has no need for more land.
Russia, quite understandably, looks for long-term economic and social
ties with Ukraine. But to try to
take over a country where the majority of people would be repelled by being
part of Russia makes no sense. It
would make Russia the pariah of the world and give them nothing in return but
trouble.
We are failing to seriously examine what is the true strategic
intent of Russia. I am not
suggesting that they haven’t supported the Separatists in Eastern Ukraine; I
feel quite sure they have, probably to help ensure that a constitutional
settlement is finally reached that gives appropriate rights to the ethnic
Russians living there.
The interests of the United States and Russia should be very simple and
the same. We should support what
has been so long coming--the creation of a unified Ukraine, with federalization
much as it exists in other countries.
Pulling Ukraine together is a huge challenge. The fissure between Eastern Ukraine and the rest of the
country is large, ethnically based and now deepened by a civil war.
Russia, the United States, all of us, should do everything we can to
support this constitutional settlement.
We should not allow anything in our control to get in the way of that
settlement, for nothing other than that will bring peace to the Ukrainian
people. And that’s what they
want. That’s what the people in
every country want.
I fear that most people are so far removed from the
horror of war today that we have forgotten what it’s like. It might serve everyone to go back and
look at the movie “Platoon” or “Saving Private Ryan” again to be reminded what
the cost of war is to human life.
I believe we are at a historical precipice. I am extremely worried by the unfettered “propaganda,” and
that’s what it is, on both sides of the issue. This has had the insidious effect of bringing the people of
Russia and of the United States to view the “other” as “evil.” And in fact they are not. They are committed to their own
national interests.
There are some who dismiss Russia as a declining economic power faced
with negative demographics. Such
dismissal is ill advised and blind to history. In fact, some of the most important demographic measures
(e.g., lifespan) are improving in Russia.
Russia will be one of the handful of most important, influential nations
for generations to come, just as it has been in the past. It has the natural resources, the
landmass and the educated and committed people that will make that happen. Russia will be a bridge between Europe
and Asia. The tragedy of the
Ukrainian crisis is that it has, at least for a time, thwarted its natural
positive relationship with Europe.
Ironically, I believe the imposed economic sanctions may accelerate the
economic and industrial development and greater self-sufficiency of Russia which
it has failed to develop over the past quarter-century despite numerous
pronouncements of the need. Now, in
many ways, they have no choice.
While the sanctions have led to greater capital flight and reduced
foreign direct investment, their long-term impact may be more beneficial than
detrimental to the Russian economy and its competitive position with other
nations.
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Every nation, every person, wants to be treated with respect. There is no way that will happen if we
are not able to view the current situation through each other’s eyes. That doesn’t mean we will compromise
and tolerate people taking away the freedom of another nation or people. We need to draw a bright line on the
support we will provide to countries to which we pledge support, but we should
not make the mistake of attributing motivations and nefarious intent to other
people which, in fact, they declaim and which, in fact, as we examine the
reality of the situation and our “natural” relationships, we see no reason to assume.
We also need to stop carrying out diplomacy and negotiations through
the media seeking sharp headlines that show we “mean business” and are
tough. We need to establish what
the bright lines are, but we should do so privately, even if vehemently,
through credible spokespeople. We
have them in the President of the United States and the President of Russia and
their foreign secretaries.
Let’s deal with this situation, recognizing the seriousness that it
represents to the future of our nation, of Russia, and the people of Ukraine
and the world.
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I write as a concerned citizen and retired business leader who has been
involved in Russia for a quarter of a century. I have seen first-hand how common the interests are of the
Russian and American people and how much we can accomplish together. I hope business leaders with similar
experience will express their own point of view on what I regard as the
perilous state of our nations’ relationship.