How Can We Exit From The Human Carnage In Front of Us
MARCH 4, 2022
We have to give Putin an off ramp,—but one which guarantees the enduring peace and the future sovereignty and stability of the nation of Ukraine
As I have written, while there is blame to go around in what brought us to this calamity over the last 20 years, there is absolutely no justification for the cruel, life-taking and unprovoked attack which Russia has launched on Ukraine. I have no ambivalence but that we have done the right and only thing in imposing the very severe sanctions and currency restrictions on Russia that we have. My hope is that this, combined with the inspiring resistance of the Ukrainian people and President Zelensky and increasing protests from the Russian people will cause Putin to pull back, to recognize that the decision to proceed was a mistake. That the costs of continuing are too high for Russia and the Russian people to bear. And that the future of his leadership is at stake. As a result, good faith negotiations would be undertaken.
But there is another result that could come from this. A draconian result. One that is in front of us as I write this. Putin could declare that what has happened here is the manifestation of the West declaring war to hurt and obliterate Russia that led him to demand Ukraine be in Russia’s orbit in the first place. He could claim that this is the continuation of the West's encircling and attacking Russia that he has declaimed for decades. And from this, he could say he is justified in going on an all-out attack on Ukraine, blitzkrieging its cities with bombs and rockets which he has not done here until now--but is beginning to do now-- and which he has the capability of doing.
All of which leads me to say that without compromising our basic principles, we should consider giving Putin an "off ramp", an outcome which allows him to claim some form of victory as incomplete as it is compared to his messianic, malevolent and delusional vision of making Ukraine part of a greater Russia.
What that off ramp might be could, I believe, involve iron clad agreements along these lines:
1. Ukraine will not become a part of NATO in the foreseeable future. We wouldn’t agree or say that it “never” could be, but it won’t occur for the foreseeable future. Which indeed is the plain, simple truth.
2. The Russian armed forces will leave the borders of Ukraine immediately and completely.
3. All parties, Russia, the West, all parties, agree that there will be NO armed forces in Ukraine other than those of the Ukrainian government. Neutrality prevails as was agreed decades ago in Austria.
4. There will be agreement by all parties, including Russia, that Ukraine will remain an independent sovereign nation without interference from other nations of any kind.
5. Crimea will remain part of Russia.
6. Sanctions against Russia, at least the most severe ones will be lifted.
7. The Minsk Agreement will be carried out, including providing appropriate regional autonomy to the Donbass and Luhansk regions.
The first step to agree and implement these agreements will be to lay down arms, stop the killing, and begin good faith talks on a tight timetable.
I have no idea if this can be agreed to or whether it suggests a path to a principled and sustained solution. I know the parties right now are far apart in their intent and their avowed views of what is right. It may be too late to avert the catastrophe. I hope not.
I am convinced that something along these lines is the only alternative to the truly dooms -day scenario in front of us for all parties-- the loss and decimation of hundreds of thousand, indeed millions of Ukrainian lives and a continued boiling human crisis in that country and if it is under Russian occupation. This would go on for years. It will make Russia's ten years in Afghanistan look like a cake-walk. And the Russian economy will crater, destroying the livelihood and well being of tens of millions of people. And there will be a geo-political contest that raises the risk of nuclear war.
Whatever the difficulty of resolving differences, what ever the reality that there will need to be compromise, surely this is the right path to pursue.
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