Whither Ukraine?

 

Whither Ukraine?

This is such a maddening and perplexing issue to me.  

Here I am on the outside, having read a huge amount of Russian history and a fair amount of Ukrainian history, too. Having come to know and appreciate a good number of Russian men and women whom I respect.  

Here we are with lots of smart, “well-meaning” people around the table, trying to reach a peaceful solution that has  staying power, not a temporary Band-Aid, which is what we have had for at least the past seven years and which has not stopped the bleeding. 

My thoughts start with the people of Ukraine and the nation of Ukraine.  What is right for them?  How can this suffering be stopped?  The uncertainty reduced? My thoughts continue with asking what is in the interest of Russia, the Russian people, and the people in the West? You know what they all want more than anything? It is Peace ...Peace in their lives.

 

You ask yourself:  Who really needs Ukraine, other than Ukrainians?  Russia doesn't’t need it.  Yes, they need to be assured that there isn’t a competitive force like NATO there on their borders, threatening them.  They need to know that the relationship of Ukraine with Russia will be strong, economically, socially, as it has been for much of history.  But they don’t need the land; they don’t need the economic resources.  They need access to them, yes, just like they need access to resources in Germany and many other countries, but not in an exclusive sense. 

 

NATO doesn't’need Ukraine.  To the contrary, it’s the last thing it needs.  It can’t and wouldn't defend Ukraine.  Ukraine wouldn’t be ready for NATO even if it were right for them to join.  They have their own huge issues to deal with and they need support and not competition among contending nations to resolve them. 

The U.S. doesn't’ need Ukraine.  It’s thousands of miles from us.  We have virtually no dependency or relationship with it economically. And, heaven knows, we have an abundance of our own issues at this moment. 

 

The Russian people don’t want a war with Ukraine.  Yes, they are proud and patriotic and they want to see Russia be respected as a nation.  But the last thing the great majority of Russian people want is to see their soldiers mired in Ukraine, as they were for a decade in Afghanistan, and their economy, already challenged, torn further apart because of sanctions that would follow Russia’s incursion into Ukraine. 

 

There is a big issue, there is no hiding from it.  The majority of the people in the Donbas and Luhansk region have a strong and historically rooted cultural attachment to Russia.  If a plebiscite were held today,  they might well vote to join Russia.  But that doesn't’ have to happen to resolve the issue.  It isn't the right way to resolve it.

While not fully comparable, we have the example of French-speaking Quebec, where a different language and way of life is honored, including by providing certain identified decision-making rights and autonomy that accrue to that region.  Spain has lived, not comfortably admittedly, but without war with Catalonia which has its own language and cultural norms.

 

What has to happen for a solution to be reached?  I’m no diplomatic guru. What I suggest below is flawed and incomplete. But it seems to me, from everything I’ve learned, there are a few things to be considered.

 

Discussions to implement the Minsk II accord, this time with the participation of the U.S., need to resume. It seems to me the provisions of this accord include the key elements to achieve a lasting peaceful settlement. They need to provide for the right degree of autonomy for the Donbas and Luhansk regions. There  needs to be agreement that Ukraine will not be the site of armed forces for any nation other than Ukraine which pose or appear to pose a threat to a neighboring nation.  That is, NATO will not put weapons into Ukraine. At the same time, Russia will remove its troops and military equipment at its border with Ukraine and will not threaten its sovereignty in any other way. We resolved the Cuban Missile crisis in much this way and avoided what could have been WW III. The Soviet Union withdrew its missiles and troops. NATO withdrew its missiles from Turkey which the Soviet Union had seen as a dagger point at its heartland.

 

The attitude toward Ukraine should be:  “Live and let live.” 

 

Allow Ukraine to develop economic and diplomatic relationships with Russia and the West and whichever other countries they want to. 

 

To achieve an agreement of this type, there will need to be the creation of mutual trust and a commitment to achieve the common goal of a peaceful and independent Ukraine free of the impact of intervention by contending forces. This will not be easy. The last seven years of fruitless discussions show that. But the crisis in front of us demands we try. The alternatives are grossly unacceptable. 

 

I hope and pray this will be the outcome.  Anything else is crazy and counter to the interest of every party. 

 

There have been parallels drawn between our (the U.S.) being involved in Ukraine to our becoming involved in Vietnam.  The argument there is that what happens in Ukraine is not in our national interest any more than it was in our interest to embark on the ten-year war in Vietnam. I don’t agree with that analogy.  I think a peaceful resolution of this boiling issue is both in our interest and in the world’s interest.

 

In shades that make me shudder, however, I see in all this many elements which led up to World War I.  Conflagration in a small part of the world, in that case Serbia, leading to a catastrophic war which resulted in over 20 million deaths.  Countries went to war, one by one, which really didn’t want to go to war.  It all happened as dominoes fell. One thing followed another.

 

We dare not allow that to happen now. Especially in this nuclear age.