A Dramatic Example of the Role of Contingency and the Individual in History

 I just finished reading one of the most galvanizing and analytically insightful books I can recall recently reading called Hitler’s 30 Days to Power:  January 1933 by Henry Ashby Turner, Jr.

 

With unbroken narrative drive and razor-sharp intellectual analysis, Turner traces the unpredictable and totally contingent nature of Hitler and his Nazi Party ascending to power through his assuming the chancellorship on January 30, 1933.  At the beginning of the month, this would have seemed entirely unlikely; the Nazi Party had suffered defeats in recent elections, its morale was dispirited and there were signs that the German economy was starting to turn the corner from the extremely severe depression which had been afflicting it.

 

Turner’s book persuasively makes the case that Hitler’s appointment as chancellor was by no means inevitable, even if it were possible.  There were preconditions in German history, past and present, which in fact made it possible.  The preconditions went way back at least to the failed democratic revolution in 1848, to the political right’s capturing the cause of nationalism in the course of the country’s unification under Prussian leadership.  The economic conditions and social tensions that gave rise to a militant working class political movement and eventually to its split into bitterly opposed factions (the Communists and Social Democrats), the shock of defeat in World War I and the draconian Versailles Treaty conditions—all of these and more—were historical preconditions.

 

However, as Turner makes clear, “An examination of the events of January 1933 undercut any notion of inevitability by revealing the strong elements of contingency in the chain of events that brought Hitler to power.”  And importantly, they involved individuals.  I won’t try to review all of the individual roles here, but they’re important and merit study.  There is the weakness and poor judgment of the aging President Von Hinderbergh who, in the end, was the only one who had the right to appoint the chancellor.  There was the political ineptness and simple lack of drive for power of Kurt von Schleicher, the chancellor, who in many ways allowed this to happen. There was the mendacious von Papen, who thought he could control Hitler, greatly overrating his ability as deputy chancellor.  There were the liberal parties who didn’t accurately read what Hitler had committed himself to.  There was von Hindenberg’s son who, despite his better judgment, finally went along with Hitler because he didn’t think Schleicher was up to the job.  And there was luck in different meetings between the people as the conspiracy to get rid of Schleicher despite Hindenberg’s adversity to Hitler was born and carried out.

 

Turner goes on to describe an alternative that could have occurred at this point in Germany’s history:  a military autocracy.  von Hindenberg could have allowed this.  It would have been against the Constitution, but that was clearly going to be violated by Hitler and von Papen knew it.  Hitler’s would not be a parliamentary coalition government; it would end up being a Presidential and eventually a dictatorial one.  Upon von Hindenberg’s death in 1934, Hitler of course appointed himself as the president.

 

In the early years, Hitler was buoyed by the economic recovery, by the desire for stability by the German people and by his toning down the anti-Semitism and intent on military conquest which was coursing through his veins.  

 

I agree with Turner’s ending judgments:  “Only through the political blindness and blunders of others did Adolf Hitler gain the opportunity to put his criminal intentions into effect between 1933 and 1945.  This is not to say that he alone was responsible for the heinous crimes committed during his rule.  To the everlasting shame of the German nation, Hitler found large numbers of lackeys eager to persecute, subjugate and slaughter people deemed dangerous or inferior by the perverted standards of his regime.”

 

“Although the Nazi’s dictator’s career left only a negative legacy, it provides a powerful example for subsequent generations of the crucial need to exercise the utmost care in selecting those to whom control is granted over the most powerful—and potentially the most lethal—institution created by humanity:  the modern state.”

 

“This story serves as a reminder that nothing except change is inevitable in human affairs, that the acts of individuals make a difference, and that heavy moral responsibility weighs upon those who wield control over the state.”

 

This book was written in 1996, fully 25 years ago.  We received another reminder of the importance of Turner’s summary points in the election of Donald J. Trump as President of the United States.  On the flip side, we saw the importance of these points, manifested positively, in the choice of Winston Churchill to lead Britain in 1940.