Confronting the Risk of This Precarious Moment

 Over the course of the last nine months, I have posted several blogs related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The first dealing with the threat of that invasion was on January 27; title:  Whether Ukraine.  I expressed the deep belief then that it was in no one’s interest, including not Russia’s, for Putin to invade Ukraine. 

 A month later, he did exactly that, in what I went on to describe 8 months later, in September, as a “cruel, tragic and misbegotten war.” 

I believe Putin's misguided and misinformed decision will go down in the annals of history as one of the worst decisions ever made by the leader of a major country. 

 

The killing continues.  Coverage of this war today has faded some, but it’s still a “top of the news” item, as it should be.  However, I find that it is being reported on now almost like it is a football game.  It secures its space among coverage of the baseball playoffs, discussion of inflation and the upcoming mid-term elections in the United States. 

 

On October 15, a Wall Street Journal article written by Peggy Noonan echoes what I have been saying for some months. 

 “As the stakes got higher, leaders have become all too casual—unserious and sloppy.  Part of it is social media, on which the whole world is hooked.  Ambassadors launch taunting tweets like rockets and getting high-fives. What is needed is a serious, weighty, textured document that reflects the gravity of the moment we are in; a full Oval Office address that doesn’t emote but speaks rationally to a nation of thoughtful people.  A big definitional statement.  Where are we?  Are we communicating with the Kremlin?  How should the American people be thinking about all this?”

 

Almost every columnist now is comparing the current moment to the Cuban Missile Crisis. And rightly so.  Yet Noonan aptly writes, “We are not addressing this the way JFK did.  When JFK spoke, it was in a studied, careful way and to the entire nation.”

 

I fear that leaders, including our leaders, are failing to give enough attention to the consequences here.  I don’t think Putin is.  I’m not sure Biden is.  I hope I am wrong. I hope we have serious back-channel, quiet discussions going on. 

 

 As Noonan writes, “There are times in life and diplomacy when silence must be maintained as circumstances evolve and new options emerge.  But we’re not maintaining silence.  I ask for the efficiency of thoughtfulness, sometimes it can cool things down or slow them down.  If we’re traveling toward Armageddon, the slow route is best.”

 

I pray for the kind of wisdom that prevailed with Nikita Khrushchev and JFK at the time of the Cuban Missile Crisis.  They thought of options with imagination and with an eyes-wide-open, realistic view of the consequences of making the wrong decision.  Leaders need to do that today.

What Walter Lippman Has to Teach Us Today

 The more I read about Walter Lippman, the more I like him.   Old-time values, though you have to take his arrogance and his self-serving nature with his value-based prescriptions.  Writing over 75 years ago, he grieved that the ancient solidities of religious faith were in decline.  He wrote about this with passion and pessimism, especially after Hitler had conquered all of Western Europe.  

There is much that can produce similar pessimism today but we cannot allow this to conquer us. 

Lippman had the tendency to blame all of America’s troubles on its enemies, illuminating the  tendency of each of us is to look down on those who disagree with us.  He thought our salvation lay within ourselves and could not be achieved by looking elsewhere.

“Our civilization can be maintained and restored,” he wrote in 1940, “only by remembering and rediscovering the truths, and by reestablishing the virtuous habits on which it was founded.  There is no use looking into the blank future for some new and fancy revelation of what man needs in order to live.  The elemental principles of work and sacrifice and duty—and the transcendent criteria of truth, justice and righteousness—and the grace of love and charity are the things which have made men free…only in this profound, this stern, in this tested wisdom shall we find once more the light and the courage we need.”  

Surely, words for today, words for this moment, words for eternity. 

 

What’s the role of religion in all of this, I ask.  Is it an essential requirement for one to lead a moral life?  I wouldn’t say that.  I know people, a couple of my children among them, who are leading moral lives and yet they would not call themselves religious.  But they do believe there are higher values that stem from something outside themselves.  For me, religion has played that role.  Not alone.  A deep appreciation of nature, of humanity at its best leads me to the same conviction in the imperative of certain moral values.  But religion, as I’ve understood and tried to practice it, has played a bigger role than anything.

  

Timeless wisdom from Walter Lippman “Those in high places are more than the administrators of government bureaus.  They are more than the writers of laws.  They are the custodians of the nation’s ideals, of its permanent hopes, of the faith that makes a nation out of the mere aggregation of individuals.” 

 

 A message for leaders in every walk of life today and forever. 

 

A Cruel, Tragic and Misbegotten War--Putin's Decision to Invade Ukraine--The Screw Turns

When it happened seven months ago, I could not believe Putin's lack of sense and foresight in deciding to invade and attempt to take over the entirety of Ukraine.  His misjudgment of the attitude of the Ukrainian people, their willingness and ability to fight, as well as his misjudgment of the capability of the Russian Army and misreading of history were appalling. 

 

This invasion has caused deaths and injuries numbering in the hundreds of thousands.  It has resulted in the displacement of close to fifteen million Ukrainians from their homes.  It has resulted in a shattering of the economy of Ukraine and the burden of dramatically higher energy prices for the whole world. 

 

It has isolated Russia and turned it into a pariah. It has cut off communications between educational and cultural institutions.  Russia has become isolated economically, politically, culturally and morally. 

 

Putin’s attack, premised as it was on the threat of the expansion of NATO, has accomplished exactly the opposite: the accession of two new close-to-Russia countries to NATO, and a strengthening of the ties and commitments within it.

  

During the last three weeks we have witnessed six significant events deepening the reality of the folly of Putin’s decision:

 

1.          The Ukrainians counter-offensive in northeast Ukraine has re-taken more territory from the Russians than it took during the war to date.

 

2.          The summit held in last week in Uzbekistan, which included President Xi of China, and Prime Minister Modi of India, had to be a real downer for Putin.

 

Xi did nothing to express his commitment to what Putin is doing in Ukraine.  In fact, he didn’t even mention Ukraine. His silence spoke volumes.

 

   Modi, on his part, lectured Putin on the need to stop the war and achieve peace.

   Russia is isolated. 

 

3.          The discovery of mass graves in the liberated city of Izyum in northwestern Ukraine is putting a spotlight on the horrors Russian soldiers had inflicted on Ukrainian citizens.  Some of the bodies had ropes around their necks; others showed signs of torture.

 

4.  Many of those living in Donetsk and Luhansk who were initially happy that Russia was coming in, changed their mind as they saw the way Russian soldiers were treating the Ukrainian citizens.  Their conduct is quite understandably turning away many of those who due to their family lineage and proximity to Russia had been sympathetic to Russia.  

 

5.          The shades appear to be lifting in the state press in Russia on what is really going on.  There is pushback on Putin, not enough to overthrow him, but enough to surely unsettle him and his supporters from people who are criticizing the war effort and implicitly if not explicitly the folly of what is happening. 

6.      Putin's calling up 300,000 so-called reservists (many have had no training) has unmasked the fiction that this not a real war and is producing significant push-back. Over 200,000 men have reportedly fled Russia in little more than one week. 

 

The stakes and risks involved in this war are being raised as I write this by a sham-referendum conducted under gun point in eastern and south eastern Ukraine and the likelihood Russia will move to annex these regions making them part of Russia. This increases the challenge of achieving a negotiated settlement which Ukraine will sign on to. In truth, however, that is the only conceivable outcome if we are avoid a multi-year, costly battle of attrition. 

My view of this war from the start has been that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine will go down in history as one of the cruelest and misbegotten self-immolating undertakings ever. 

Its deadly impact on the people ofUkraine and others in the world suffering from its consequences is abundantly clear.  The harm to Russia in lives lost and the severance of connection with the West—economic, cultural and technology—is horrendous.  It will take years, perhaps decades to recover.  The sooner that recovery begins, the better. I remain optimistic that in time it will happen. A long term relationship for Russia with the West seems much more plausible than with China and India or Russia's going it alone, isolated as it is becoming.

 

In the current moment, we must continue to support Ukraine in its drive to regain territory even if incrementally. We should not allow Putin's thinly veiled threat to use tactical nuclear weapons to deter us from hanging tough, without provoking a direct confrontation with Russia. The longer this continues the weaker I believe Putin's position will become. He is yielding both the moral and military high ground. Patience I believe will be rewarding.

Longer term, I continue to see no alternative but new leadership in Russia. I write this conscious of the challenge of achieving it and the uncertainty of what that new leadership will bring.

To Be Hopeful In Bad Times--Howard Zinn

 TO BE HOPEFUL IN BAD TIMES is not just foolishly

romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is
a history not only of cruelty, but also of compassion,
sacrifice, courage, kindness.
What we choose to
emphasize in this complex history will determine our
lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity
to do something. If we remember those times and
places--and there are so many--where people have
behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act,
and at least the possibility of sending this spinning
top of a world in a different direction.
And if we do act, in however small a way, we don't
have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future
is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as
we think human beings should live, in defiance of all
that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory.

Assessing the Record of Biden's Presidency

Way too soon to say, especially with two years left on his current term, but I believe history will judge the first two years of Biden's presidency far more positively than he is being given credit for by most of the media, almost all Republicans and even many Democrats. To wit:

1. Biggest infrastructure bill in modern history. (Should be making more of the benefits of this).

2. Biggest climate bill in modern history.

3. Repaired credibility of US with allies.

4. Led the west in supporting Ukraine against the invasion by Russia--essential to where we are today.

5. Ended hopeless war in Afghanistan. 

6. Appointing very large number of qualified judges. 

7. Bringing manufacturing jobs back to US for the first time in decades, in part due to the provisions of the climate bill.

8. Acting to support a stronger economy than any other major nation, dramatically signaled by significantly strengthening dollar.

9. Very low unemployment.

10. Further expansion of health care coverage.

All-together, a very strong record of accomplishment in a highly partisan environment.

My biggest disappointment so far is the failure to make an effective attempt to try to marshal something other than a "zero sum" adversarial relationship with China, though I don't know if this was possible given Xi's aspirations. I had hoped Biden could help narrow the partisan divide but I do not believe that was possible given the current still Trump-infested state of the Republican party.

Reposting My Most Read Blog--"Professor of the Jungle"

 

 PROFESSOR OF THE JUNGLE"

APRIL 25, 2017

 I love the story that Phil Knight, the founder of Nike, tells in his wonderful memoir " Shoe Dog". 

 The year was 1997.  Still haunted by the Vietnam War, Knight had vowed that someday Nike would have a factory in or near Saigon.  By 1997, he had four.  He was in Saigon.  The company was to be honored and celebrated by the Vietnamese government as one of the nation’s top five generators of foreign currency.  At one point, his hosts graciously asked what they could do for him, what would make the trip special and memorable.  

 

“I’d like to meet the 86-year-old General Võ Nguyen Giáp, the man who singlehandedly defeated the Japanese, the French, the Americans and the Chinese", Knight replied. 

 

General Giáp joined the group the next day.  The first thing Knight noticed was his size.  He was maybe 5’4”.  And humble.  Knight remembered that he smiled as he did, “Shyly, uncertainly.  But there was an intensity about him…a kind of glittery confidence,” the kind he had seen in great coaches and great business leaders.  

 

Giáp waited for Knight to ask a question.

 

It was simple:   “How did you do it?”  The corners of Giáp’s mouth flickered.  A smile?  Maybe?, Knight recalled.   Giáp thought and thought.  “I was,” he said, “a professor of the jungle.”

 

“A professor of the jungle.”  

For me, it says it all: being close to your work, close to your environment, close to your consumers, close to your competition, close to your people.  That kind of closeness--I refer to it as "intimacy"-- grows out of love, a passionate commitment to a purpose.  That kind of closeness, that kind of intimacy leads to great accomplishments, to winning, to a maniacal commitment to excellence and, ultimately, to the satisfaction of a job well done.

 

The Battle to Preserve Our Democracy--We Are in this Together--The Talk I Hoped President Biden Would Give

 President Biden spoke truth to the Nation in his prime time address on Thursday night. And he needed to speak the truth that our democracy is under attack. He was genuine and passionate and his commitment to our country, never in doubt, shone brightly. 

However, it was not the talk I hoped he'd give. It is unlikely to have convinced people who are not already convinced of the very real threat to democracy which faces us Why? Because it did not go nearly far enough in drawing on the common strands of commitment to our Nation's ideals which unite the great majority of Americans, across party, age, gender, race and ethnicity. 

Here in short form and very incomplete and inadequate words is what I hoped he might say:

"My fellow Americans--Democrats, Republicans, Independents and whatever else you might call yourselves--I address myself tonight as the President of each and every one of you. 

I came to this office because I believe with all my heart and all my soul in this country; because I believe in the people of this country; because I believe in you. 

I will speak frankly to you tonight,  sharing the truth as I see it of where we stand as a Nation and what are the opportunities and challenges ahead of us. 

I speak to you at a time of great challenge: As you know, we face historically high levels of inflation, the lingering impact of Covid, Russia's unprovoked and cruel attack on Ukraine, and democracy under attack in countries ranging from Russia to China to Turkey and to several of our Latin America friends.

However, the greatest challenges we face is in our country. These challenges go the heart of who we are as a people; they concern the health of our democracy and the trust we have in one another to preserve it. 

Make no mistake. Our democracy is under serious threat today. When people, led by Donald Trump,  deny the legitimacy of elections, elections shown to have been carried out correctly under bi-partisan examination; when groups of people and prominent leaders threaten outright violence if future election results don't conform to their desires; when people are encouraged to barn storm the capital of our country in order to overturn the election and when senior leaders campaign for office on the promise of doing the same thing in the next election, we have a real threat. 

We dare not wink at this threat or pretend it doesn't exist or dismiss it as something we don't need to worry about. Denials like this have preceded the demise of democracy in other countries throughout history.

President Trump's unwillingness to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election, and that of his extreme followers, undercuts the very fabric of our democracy. It must be vigorously denounced for what it is. A fabricated and cancerous lie, an assault on democracy. 

I want to make it perfectly clear: I am not suggesting that the majority of Republicans don't share the deep commitment to the precious value of democracy and the need to fight against any threat to it. I  believe the majority of Republicans share this conviction. 

We have had different views on key issues across party and other lines for time immemorial in this country. Those differences, when debated, openly, often fiercely, have usually served us well. That will never change. Nor should it. We will continue to have these differences. On women's right to choose balanced with the right of an unborn child. On gun regulations that reduce the tragic loss of life we see today without limiting the rights of legitimate gun owners. On the pace of attacking climate change, just to name a few. 

In advancing these necessary and important debates, all of us, those of us on the Right, Left and middle of the political spectrum, must beware of allowing legitimate and important policy difference morph into such moral and angry condemnation of the "other" that we don't listen to one another's point of view and the reasons for it. Without that we will never find our way to the balanced positions which if not perfect will lead to progress and a better world. 

We need to recognize that with all our differences and our diversity, both anchors to our unique strength as a Nation, we are the beneficiaries of a great land and a great heritage--a heritage committed to the high ideals expressed so cogently expressed in our Declaration of Independence, ideals which if not fully met have guided us to progress. 

I firmly believe we have the opportunity to make our country and our world better for those that follow us, provided we never forget that we are in this together and must and can work together to make life better for all. And that underpinning it all, we do what is necessary to preserve our democracy from the threats it faces today. 

The past year with all its challenges, which I in no way minimize,  shows we can work together. Science has stepped forward as hospitals, health care workers and many others launched vaccines to combat Covid in record time. Bi-partisan support has led to the biggest infrastructure bill in seventy years. Though it did not have the bi-partisan support I hoped for, we passed legislation providing the biggest advance in fighting climate change in our history and the biggest expansion of health care benefits for Americans since President Obama. 

And it is not just government working together.  Corporations and other organizations have stepped forward  with renewed commitment to tackle the vestiges of systemic racism.  

My friends, my confidence in the future is based on two things: our history which has seen us rise to the occasion when faced with the biggest challenges, whether that be war or economic depression or a decline in the cohesive bonds of trust in one another. And the other--the most important thing-- is our nature as a collective body of individuals, of all of us as a people. A people that with all our differences, all our disagreements, find ourselves bound together in ultimately appreciating the precious and, yes, rare freedom and opportunity which our democracy affords us. And from that recognition the unquenchable commitment by each one of us to fight to preserve that democracy, no matter what. Because we just wouldn't have it any other way.