A Cruel, Tragic and Misbegotten War--Putin's Decision to Invade Ukraine--The Screw Turns

When it happened seven months ago, I could not believe Putin's lack of sense and foresight in deciding to invade and attempt to take over the entirety of Ukraine.  His misjudgment of the attitude of the Ukrainian people, their willingness and ability to fight, as well as his misjudgment of the capability of the Russian Army and misreading of history were appalling. 

 

This invasion has caused deaths and injuries numbering in the hundreds of thousands.  It has resulted in the displacement of close to fifteen million Ukrainians from their homes.  It has resulted in a shattering of the economy of Ukraine and the burden of dramatically higher energy prices for the whole world. 

 

It has isolated Russia and turned it into a pariah. It has cut off communications between educational and cultural institutions.  Russia has become isolated economically, politically, culturally and morally. 

 

Putin’s attack, premised as it was on the threat of the expansion of NATO, has accomplished exactly the opposite: the accession of two new close-to-Russia countries to NATO, and a strengthening of the ties and commitments within it.

  

During the last three weeks we have witnessed six significant events deepening the reality of the folly of Putin’s decision:

 

1.          The Ukrainians counter-offensive in northeast Ukraine has re-taken more territory from the Russians than it took during the war to date.

 

2.          The summit held in last week in Uzbekistan, which included President Xi of China, and Prime Minister Modi of India, had to be a real downer for Putin.

 

Xi did nothing to express his commitment to what Putin is doing in Ukraine.  In fact, he didn’t even mention Ukraine. His silence spoke volumes.

 

   Modi, on his part, lectured Putin on the need to stop the war and achieve peace.

   Russia is isolated. 

 

3.          The discovery of mass graves in the liberated city of Izyum in northwestern Ukraine is putting a spotlight on the horrors Russian soldiers had inflicted on Ukrainian citizens.  Some of the bodies had ropes around their necks; others showed signs of torture.

 

4.  Many of those living in Donetsk and Luhansk who were initially happy that Russia was coming in, changed their mind as they saw the way Russian soldiers were treating the Ukrainian citizens.  Their conduct is quite understandably turning away many of those who due to their family lineage and proximity to Russia had been sympathetic to Russia.  

 

5.          The shades appear to be lifting in the state press in Russia on what is really going on.  There is pushback on Putin, not enough to overthrow him, but enough to surely unsettle him and his supporters from people who are criticizing the war effort and implicitly if not explicitly the folly of what is happening. 

6.      Putin's calling up 300,000 so-called reservists (many have had no training) has unmasked the fiction that this not a real war and is producing significant push-back. Over 200,000 men have reportedly fled Russia in little more than one week. 

 

The stakes and risks involved in this war are being raised as I write this by a sham-referendum conducted under gun point in eastern and south eastern Ukraine and the likelihood Russia will move to annex these regions making them part of Russia. This increases the challenge of achieving a negotiated settlement which Ukraine will sign on to. In truth, however, that is the only conceivable outcome if we are avoid a multi-year, costly battle of attrition. 

My view of this war from the start has been that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine will go down in history as one of the cruelest and misbegotten self-immolating undertakings ever. 

Its deadly impact on the people ofUkraine and others in the world suffering from its consequences is abundantly clear.  The harm to Russia in lives lost and the severance of connection with the West—economic, cultural and technology—is horrendous.  It will take years, perhaps decades to recover.  The sooner that recovery begins, the better. I remain optimistic that in time it will happen. A long term relationship for Russia with the West seems much more plausible than with China and India or Russia's going it alone, isolated as it is becoming.

 

In the current moment, we must continue to support Ukraine in its drive to regain territory even if incrementally. We should not allow Putin's thinly veiled threat to use tactical nuclear weapons to deter us from hanging tough, without provoking a direct confrontation with Russia. The longer this continues the weaker I believe Putin's position will become. He is yielding both the moral and military high ground. Patience I believe will be rewarding.

Longer term, I continue to see no alternative but new leadership in Russia. I write this conscious of the challenge of achieving it and the uncertainty of what that new leadership will bring.

To Be Hopeful In Bad Times--Howard Zinn

 TO BE HOPEFUL IN BAD TIMES is not just foolishly

romantic. It is based on the fact that human history is
a history not only of cruelty, but also of compassion,
sacrifice, courage, kindness.
What we choose to
emphasize in this complex history will determine our
lives. If we see only the worst, it destroys our capacity
to do something. If we remember those times and
places--and there are so many--where people have
behaved magnificently, this gives us the energy to act,
and at least the possibility of sending this spinning
top of a world in a different direction.
And if we do act, in however small a way, we don't
have to wait for some grand utopian future. The future
is an infinite succession of presents, and to live now as
we think human beings should live, in defiance of all
that is bad around us, is itself a marvelous victory.

Assessing the Record of Biden's Presidency

Way too soon to say, especially with two years left on his current term, but I believe history will judge the first two years of Biden's presidency far more positively than he is being given credit for by most of the media, almost all Republicans and even many Democrats. To wit:

1. Biggest infrastructure bill in modern history. (Should be making more of the benefits of this).

2. Biggest climate bill in modern history.

3. Repaired credibility of US with allies.

4. Led the west in supporting Ukraine against the invasion by Russia--essential to where we are today.

5. Ended hopeless war in Afghanistan. 

6. Appointing very large number of qualified judges. 

7. Bringing manufacturing jobs back to US for the first time in decades, in part due to the provisions of the climate bill.

8. Acting to support a stronger economy than any other major nation, dramatically signaled by significantly strengthening dollar.

9. Very low unemployment.

10. Further expansion of health care coverage.

All-together, a very strong record of accomplishment in a highly partisan environment.

My biggest disappointment so far is the failure to make an effective attempt to try to marshal something other than a "zero sum" adversarial relationship with China, though I don't know if this was possible given Xi's aspirations. I had hoped Biden could help narrow the partisan divide but I do not believe that was possible given the current still Trump-infested state of the Republican party.

Reposting My Most Read Blog--"Professor of the Jungle"

 

 PROFESSOR OF THE JUNGLE"

APRIL 25, 2017

 I love the story that Phil Knight, the founder of Nike, tells in his wonderful memoir " Shoe Dog". 

 The year was 1997.  Still haunted by the Vietnam War, Knight had vowed that someday Nike would have a factory in or near Saigon.  By 1997, he had four.  He was in Saigon.  The company was to be honored and celebrated by the Vietnamese government as one of the nation’s top five generators of foreign currency.  At one point, his hosts graciously asked what they could do for him, what would make the trip special and memorable.  

 

“I’d like to meet the 86-year-old General Võ Nguyen Giáp, the man who singlehandedly defeated the Japanese, the French, the Americans and the Chinese", Knight replied. 

 

General Giáp joined the group the next day.  The first thing Knight noticed was his size.  He was maybe 5’4”.  And humble.  Knight remembered that he smiled as he did, “Shyly, uncertainly.  But there was an intensity about him…a kind of glittery confidence,” the kind he had seen in great coaches and great business leaders.  

 

Giáp waited for Knight to ask a question.

 

It was simple:   “How did you do it?”  The corners of Giáp’s mouth flickered.  A smile?  Maybe?, Knight recalled.   Giáp thought and thought.  “I was,” he said, “a professor of the jungle.”

 

“A professor of the jungle.”  

For me, it says it all: being close to your work, close to your environment, close to your consumers, close to your competition, close to your people.  That kind of closeness--I refer to it as "intimacy"-- grows out of love, a passionate commitment to a purpose.  That kind of closeness, that kind of intimacy leads to great accomplishments, to winning, to a maniacal commitment to excellence and, ultimately, to the satisfaction of a job well done.

 

The Battle to Preserve Our Democracy--We Are in this Together--The Talk I Hoped President Biden Would Give

 President Biden spoke truth to the Nation in his prime time address on Thursday night. And he needed to speak the truth that our democracy is under attack. He was genuine and passionate and his commitment to our country, never in doubt, shone brightly. 

However, it was not the talk I hoped he'd give. It is unlikely to have convinced people who are not already convinced of the very real threat to democracy which faces us Why? Because it did not go nearly far enough in drawing on the common strands of commitment to our Nation's ideals which unite the great majority of Americans, across party, age, gender, race and ethnicity. 

Here in short form and very incomplete and inadequate words is what I hoped he might say:

"My fellow Americans--Democrats, Republicans, Independents and whatever else you might call yourselves--I address myself tonight as the President of each and every one of you. 

I came to this office because I believe with all my heart and all my soul in this country; because I believe in the people of this country; because I believe in you. 

I will speak frankly to you tonight,  sharing the truth as I see it of where we stand as a Nation and what are the opportunities and challenges ahead of us. 

I speak to you at a time of great challenge: As you know, we face historically high levels of inflation, the lingering impact of Covid, Russia's unprovoked and cruel attack on Ukraine, and democracy under attack in countries ranging from Russia to China to Turkey and to several of our Latin America friends.

However, the greatest challenges we face is in our country. These challenges go the heart of who we are as a people; they concern the health of our democracy and the trust we have in one another to preserve it. 

Make no mistake. Our democracy is under serious threat today. When people, led by Donald Trump,  deny the legitimacy of elections, elections shown to have been carried out correctly under bi-partisan examination; when groups of people and prominent leaders threaten outright violence if future election results don't conform to their desires; when people are encouraged to barn storm the capital of our country in order to overturn the election and when senior leaders campaign for office on the promise of doing the same thing in the next election, we have a real threat. 

We dare not wink at this threat or pretend it doesn't exist or dismiss it as something we don't need to worry about. Denials like this have preceded the demise of democracy in other countries throughout history.

President Trump's unwillingness to acknowledge the results of the 2020 election, and that of his extreme followers, undercuts the very fabric of our democracy. It must be vigorously denounced for what it is. A fabricated and cancerous lie, an assault on democracy. 

I want to make it perfectly clear: I am not suggesting that the majority of Republicans don't share the deep commitment to the precious value of democracy and the need to fight against any threat to it. I  believe the majority of Republicans share this conviction. 

We have had different views on key issues across party and other lines for time immemorial in this country. Those differences, when debated, openly, often fiercely, have usually served us well. That will never change. Nor should it. We will continue to have these differences. On women's right to choose balanced with the right of an unborn child. On gun regulations that reduce the tragic loss of life we see today without limiting the rights of legitimate gun owners. On the pace of attacking climate change, just to name a few. 

In advancing these necessary and important debates, all of us, those of us on the Right, Left and middle of the political spectrum, must beware of allowing legitimate and important policy difference morph into such moral and angry condemnation of the "other" that we don't listen to one another's point of view and the reasons for it. Without that we will never find our way to the balanced positions which if not perfect will lead to progress and a better world. 

We need to recognize that with all our differences and our diversity, both anchors to our unique strength as a Nation, we are the beneficiaries of a great land and a great heritage--a heritage committed to the high ideals expressed so cogently expressed in our Declaration of Independence, ideals which if not fully met have guided us to progress. 

I firmly believe we have the opportunity to make our country and our world better for those that follow us, provided we never forget that we are in this together and must and can work together to make life better for all. And that underpinning it all, we do what is necessary to preserve our democracy from the threats it faces today. 

The past year with all its challenges, which I in no way minimize,  shows we can work together. Science has stepped forward as hospitals, health care workers and many others launched vaccines to combat Covid in record time. Bi-partisan support has led to the biggest infrastructure bill in seventy years. Though it did not have the bi-partisan support I hoped for, we passed legislation providing the biggest advance in fighting climate change in our history and the biggest expansion of health care benefits for Americans since President Obama. 

And it is not just government working together.  Corporations and other organizations have stepped forward  with renewed commitment to tackle the vestiges of systemic racism.  

My friends, my confidence in the future is based on two things: our history which has seen us rise to the occasion when faced with the biggest challenges, whether that be war or economic depression or a decline in the cohesive bonds of trust in one another. And the other--the most important thing-- is our nature as a collective body of individuals, of all of us as a people. A people that with all our differences, all our disagreements, find ourselves bound together in ultimately appreciating the precious and, yes, rare freedom and opportunity which our democracy affords us. And from that recognition the unquenchable commitment by each one of us to fight to preserve that democracy, no matter what. Because we just wouldn't have it any other way. 

Democracy Is Hard to Achieve, Hard to Retain and Easy To Lose--We In The United States Are At Risk of Losing It

A recent New York Times carried a sobering headline:  “Tunisia’s Hope of Democracy Unraveled in Political Failings.”

 

As the aspiration for democracy which marked the Arab Spring in 2011 withered in Egypt, Libya and Algeria, hope remained.  There was Tunisia.  The Arab Spring’s greatest hope for democratic change.  Until now that is. 

 

As The New York Times reported, “Disillusioned with the failure of their elected political leaders to make good on the revolution’s processes, Tunisians voted overwhelmingly for an inexperienced outsider for president in 2019.  Two years later in 2021, that president, Kais Saied, swept aside parliament and most other checks on his power to establish one-man rule.  Last month, he solidified his power grab in a new constitution approved by a national referendum.  More than a decade after Tunisia threw off authoritarian rule, the only surviving democracy to have emerged from the Arab Spring was all but dead.” 

 

I won’t try to go through all of the failed policies, the corruption, the turnstile, weak leadership (ten prime ministers in ten years) which led to this sad outcome.  An overriding cause is something that is affecting us in the United States and in many other countries in a deep and alarming way today. 

 

I refer to the demise of trust in government itself.  I refer to sharp polarization and divides between people. I refer to the knee jerk tendency for legitimate policy differences to morph into absolute moral judgements, one person to another. I refer to opportunistic, self-centered leadership in contrast to character based, servant leadership.  I refer to corruption.  

Lastly and vitally, I refer to the failure to fight for democracy by those like you and me, who are in a position to know how precious democracy is and the overhanging, ever present threat to its continued existence

 

It is easy to forget that viewed across the span of history, democracy--inclusive democracy which confers the vote on every person, in fairly administered and respected elections--is an extremely rare and recent phenomenon. It didn't exist in the United Sates during the first 150 years of its history. It didn't exist in the monarchies of Europe through most of its history. Nor did it in the Ottoman, Austria-Hungarian, Chinese or Russian Empires over the centuries.

Moreover, democracy is a very frail thing. The history of governments in Latin America and Africa shows the enormous challenge of putting in place and sustaining a truly democratic form of government. As the "Economist" reports, since 2015 over a dozen presidents in Africa have ignored or abandoned term limits, some through constitutional amendments. There has been a string of both amendments and constitutional rewrites in Latin American countries, including Bolivia, Ecuador and Venezuela. But whereas previous waves of constitutional reform tended to put in place liberal principles, this latest wave goes the other way.

The inclination of leaders to seek power (and wealth) and for a majority of  citizens to place their faith or be compelled to place their faith in a charismatic leader hoping they will be a savior is written large in history.  

Yes, true democracy is fragile. 

Whatever democratic character Germany and Italy evidenced in the late 1800s and the first decades of the 20th century was overwhelmed by Hitler and Mussolini and their cronies. They leveraged the power of victimhood and the claim of unique national and racial superiority to assert dictatorial control. Those who saw the threat of what was happening underrated the risk, felt they could control it, and with few exceptions failed to speak up and unite. Most of them perished. 

The sprouting of hope that Russia and China were moving to more democratic forms of government which many people, including me, felt in the 1990s and early 2000s,  has been quashed. Similarly, over the past decade, we have seen the erosion of democracy in countries ranging from Hungary, Poland and most recently and alarmingly to India.

 

This brings me to the situation we face today in the United States.

It’s all too easy for us in the United States--and by "us" I include "me"--to reach the comforting conclusion that while there is some risk of our democracy eroding, we don't need to fear a calamitous end.  Why is this? We take reassurance in the protection afforded by the "checks and balances" of our government. We look to the shared responsibilities of the Executive (Presidential), Legislative and ultimately the Judicial branch and the balanced role of the states and federal government to shield us from a draconian outcome.  Above all,  we look back on our history and take reassurance in having overcome challenges before.  So,  we assume it will happen again.

Is that a safe assumption? No, it is not.  

There have been times in our history when all three branches of government were unified in denying the equal right to vote to Blacks and in other periods, Chinese. The Supreme Court, which we would like to look to as the final objective arbiter of what is right, has often been wrong in securing true democracy. Just consider the Supreme Court decisions in the 1870s which invalidated legislative acts which had conferring rights on Blacks. Or consider "Plessy v. Ferguson" which codified discrimination in the 1890s. 

The recent Supreme Court decision to overturn the precedent of "Roe v. Wade" has further undermined the trust in this branch of government. Despite the claims of those judges supporting a pure "originalist" interpretation of the Constitution, court decisions have often, if not usually, reflected political inclinations of the judge.

 

What worries me the most for the future today is the dramatic decline of trust in virtually all our key institutions. The decline in trust in one another as indicated by our acute polarization. And as a result of all of this, the decline in trust in our very ability to govern.

 

There are numerous causes for this.  Gerrymandering, with its accompanying demise of truly contested accountable elections, is a big one.  My son David Pepper’s book, Laboratories of Autocracy, makes this abundantly clear.

 

My key point is that democracy in this country is on trial. We need to fight for it.  We cannot take it for granted or assume that, because we have been able to retain it over our short 250-year history, it will continue.

 

There was no guarantee we’d remain as one nation at the time of the Civil War.  It could have gone the other way. 

 

There was no guarantee that Donald Trump might not have succeeded in overturning the 2020 election.  That was his intent.  He had lots of support and still retains much of it. It could have gone the other way in 2020.. In fact, we can't rule out its going the other way in 2024. Many of the Republican candidates currently running to be Secretary of State--a key position influencing elections outcomes--are declared deniers of the legitimacy of the 2020 election even to this day. 

 

The alarm bells are ringing.  We need to speak out and we need to act. To learn what to do, I urge you read my son David Pepper's book,  Laboratories of Autocracy. In the final chapter, he pinpoints thirty actions we need to take to preserve our democracy. For each of us as individuals, they prominently include:

1. Working to elect candidates at every level--federal, state and local--who are explicitly committed to making it easy for every person to vote and to accept the results of fairly administered elections.

2. Support legislation and referenda that eliminate the corrosive impact of gerrymandering and result in congressional district lines that lead to fair representation, contested elections and hence accountability.

 

When Will We Ever Learn

 

This plaintive lyric from Pete Seeger's unforgettable song---"Where Have All the Flowers Gone"-- moves me deeply today for many reasons. 

 

"When will we ever learn" that men, women and children all around the world--all of us--care and want the same things:  peace and security in our lives: knowing we are appreciated and that we matter with people whom we respect; having opportunities for personal progress and to enjoy a reasonable level of prosperity?

"When we ever learn" that simply listening to another person, coming to know their story, is the greatest gift we can offer them--and ourselves.

 

"When will we ever learn" that in order to resolve inevitable differences in viewpoint and beliefs among different people, we have to be able to talk with one another to share our views and do so with mutual respect, building a level of trust that permits and leads to honest conversation? 

 

"When will we ever learn" that we cannot achieve the peaceful coexistence we desperately need with other powerful nations-- each with their own cultures, traditions and beliefs-- unless we talk with one another with respect and a mutual desire to see each other’s point of view? To learn what are the "red lines"are for each of us and how we can respect them without betraying our own most fundamental interests?

 

"When will we ever learn to act" on the reality that there are common challenges and opportunities that demand that nations work together to secure not only their own interests but their very existence and that of the planet.  I refer above all to the challenges of nuclear disaster, climate change, terrorism and rampant disease, as has been abundantly evident with COVID.

Yes, “when will we ever learn?”  More to the point, perhaps, is the question "how can we learn?"  And indeed, “can we learn?”  

Honestly, I’m not sure.  But there is room for hope. History presents examples when we have acted on this learning . In the last century we have seen the nations of Europe, which had been in almost constant warfare with one another, come together in the European Union. Agreements and common understanding among the nuclear powers--the United States and Russia prominent among them-- have led to the avoidance of the use of nuclear weapons for over seventy years. 

In the 1990's, after the peaceful  dissolution of the Soviet Union and China's path of  development which appeared compatible with fostering global unity, we had a glimmer of hope-- a shining moment, even as it has turned out a despairingly short one--when we  (or at least many of us) thought we had reached a point of stability, of living together, not perfectly, but on the whole constructively. 

And yet, as we now are all too well aware, over the course of the last 20 years, we have witnessed in the deteriorating relationship of the West with Russia and China and continuing with Iran, the shattering of this hope of living together peacefully, not free of rivalry, not perfectly, but constructively, recognizing and acting on our all too obvious common interests. 

   

What more can I say other than the imperative of not to give up on achieving this.  It’s beyond my ability to say how we can do this.  It’s not beyond my ability or experience to say we must find a way to do this. And that we should proceed with not only determination but hope-- for history teaches we have made progress in the past-- led by individuals like Nelson Mandela, Abraham Lincoln, Mikhail Gorbachev, Lee Kuan Yew, Konrad Adenauer,  Martin Luther King and countless unsung heroes in every walk of life. Individuals like you and me,  deciding to do what they believe is right and necessary, no matter the risk and challenge, and joining with others in the quest.  Individuals facing seemingly insuperable challenges, responding-- "nevertheless"-- we will continue on.