PERSONAL REFLECTIONS ON RUSSIA AND WHAT IT HAS MEANT TO ME IN MY LIFE

I have often pondered why Russia developed as it has compared to the United States.  This is a much bigger subject than I can tackle at any point let alone here.  But a reflection or two might be in order:

·      I believe the history of Russia, with all its external threats and invasions and its size, has made strong central control the default path to achieve stability and peace, which is what I submit most people want, especially after a period of war.  This desire is much greater in Russia than in the U.S., which has not had this history of constant, life-taking violence. 

·      The U.S., already free of this kind of past, was born in a period of the enlightenment and was led by men steeped in the values of that period (freedom; rationalism).  Russia did not have this experience.  While there were many liberal thinkers and there was Western influence, particularly under Peter and Catherine the Great, the nation as a whole grew up in a period of autocracy.  In many ways, it missed the enlightenment. 

·      Competing parties developed in America, generally seeking the majority of votes needed to win, while in Russia, parties tended to be suppressed and what developed were groups, some committed to violence -- believing that was the only way to force change within a deeply embedded tsarist system.  That, not surprisingly, caused counter-action by the aristocracy.  There were liberal groups, committed to constitutional government and good values but, over time, they lacked the strength and willingness to use violence sufficient to offset the radical and reactionary forces which they were all too ready to use violence. 

Our Civil War was the one point, it seems to me, when the differences in political and sectional interests reached the point that it took an act of violence to resolve these differences; though as history was to show those differences, specifically as they involved the treatment of the Negro, were far from resolved.  There continued to be violence, too--witness the Klu Klux Klan--related to race, but there continued to be in the main the overriding mind-set that differences could and should be resolved by party government, a well functioning judiciary and the recognition of a balance of states and federal-oriented rights.

I believe the overwhelming percentage of Americans believe (correctly) that the stability and growth of the nation will best be guaranteed through the governmental processes described above, as messy and slow as they can be and are now, as I write this in 2013. 

I return to a question I have asked myself many times, and others have asked me as well:  "What accounts for my deep interest in Russia; why do I seem to love it so?"  On that point, I seriously considered titling my book on P&G's entry into Russia:  "To Russia, with Love." 

As I contemplate this at this moment, I am coming to think "love" is not the right verb.  Rather, I think it is fairer to say I am intrigued by Russia; I am attracted to Russia and to things Russian in many ways; I admire much about Russia, including the character of its people.  I might even say I have been infatuated by Russia and Russian people.

I don't want to make more of this than it warrants or overly dissect or complicate it, but I must warn you:  I am probably about to do that.  So, what does account for this confluence of feelings?

There is the fact that, for me, it represents the singular chapter of P&G's history in which I have been personally involved which has represented the greatest challenge in terms of the political and economic revolution in which our entry took place; a tremendous challenge as we built our business but, in the end, we emerged with great success. 

It is terribly significant that this took place in the nation which, as I grew up, was our nation's greatest threat.  How could I forget ducking under desks as a school child simulating what we would do under Soviet attack; or that I had pursued Russian submarines while in the Navy; and held my breath during the Cuban missile crisis. 

With perhaps an utter lack of realism, I was moved by the opportunity I saw for us at P&G to make some difference to our countries' and peoples' understanding of each other as we created our business there--and I wanted us to make a difference to the people through our brands and by providing a great place to work.

Significant, too, against this background of threat there was the admiration I had for Russian stamina in overcoming so much adversity and tragedy in its history, including the heroism of its people in WWII.  I also admired the athletic, technical and artistic achievements of its people.  In many dimensions, I did not believe it could be matched.  Getting to know and experience a nation and its people which had produced such achievement was an opportunity I treasured.

My attachment and admiration for things Russian grew and grew during the 20 years I visited the country.  I fell in love (and I choose the word carefully here) with Tolstoy's characters and insight on life because it affected my own views on life very meaningfully.  I became deeply moved by the music of composers, particularly Rachmaninoff and Tchaikovsky. 

My attachment to this experience was also influenced by the fact that, in the early years, my son, David, was engaged in it with me. He had just graduated from Yale and was serving as a member of the St. Petersburg Action Commission.  He lived in St. Petersburg and worked directly with then-Vice Mayor Putin, among others. 

There was my continuing study of Russian history begun while still at Yale – a history at once bold, grand, unpredictable, mysterious, perverse (a society committed to the people liquidates millions of them), heroic (overcoming so many enemies), rich with culture, victory and defeat, dominating personalities; a history bearing out the chance and consequence of leadership at a given moment in time (contrast the misfortune of Lenin and the good fortune in Gorbachev), and all the "might have beens."  (What if Stolypin had not been assassinated in 1912 or Witte had just been able to do more?)  Contingencies make for interest in any nation's history.  Russia, it seems to me, has more contingencies than any other country I can think of.  This has been a source of personal fascination to me, interested in history as I am. 

During these two decades, there were unforgettable moments that I can only describe as inspiring and "magic.”  I have had such moments in other countries, but none so many and so dramatic as those in Russia.  I will never forget attending a concert in Moscow Concert Hall in February 1990, featuring the return of Mstislav Rostropovich after 16 years in exile, playing Shostakovich's magnificent 5th Symphony and then "Stars and Stripes Forever.”  The crowd went wild and so did we.  

There was the journey across the country on the Trans-Siberian Express.  For me there is even magic in the name of the train as it describes the vast expanse of the Russian land and there was even more "magic" in the passing villages and trees and rivers.  I was determined to get out on the train station platform at every city we stopped, no matter the time of day or night.  And I did. 

There was my first view of the river Neva and Peter and Paul Fortress and, recently, my navigating the majestic river Volga on a boat with Victor and Valery Kramarenko and viewing the Volga from the beautiful embankment at Yaroslavl and then Ublich.  

There was my first jog around Red Square in the dead of winter in 1990, viewing the tomb of Lenin and recalling the May Day parades showcasing the Soviet Union's military might, and there were the many churches and icons within them that have made me aware of the religious attachment of this nation and so many of its people and brought to me, as almost all churches do, a feeling that I am in some way in touch with God. 

These experiences, momentous and memorable in their own right, undoubtedly took on greater significance because of the historical and business associations I brought to them. 

Above all, there were the people I met and others I knew of; people I admired for their courage and stamina at a time of great challenge.  Sakharov and Gorbachev and Yeltsin and Minister Yasin and Mayor Sobchak of St. Petersburg, and Rector Mercuriev and then Valery Katkalo and Ludmilla Verbitskaya at the University.  There was my work on behalf of the Graduate School of Business, Chairing the Advisory Committee, seeing the school flower under challenging 

circumstances.  That meant a great deal to me and still does today.  

There were our distributors who introduced our brands – and company – across the land. 

There were the P&G employees--Lada Kudrova, Zina Blinnikova, Victor Paulus, 

Natasha Vinogradova, Elena Kudrashova and Natalia Lissina and Yuri Rassokhin, and many more.  I admired their courage, their flare, their spirit, their directness and genuineness and what I would describe simply as their Russianness.  I was struck and appreciated the fact that, although we saw each other only occasionally, many of us came to be friends.  They knew I cared about their country and about them, too. 

There was my very special friendship with Victor Kramarenko and his wife, Galina, and daughter, Valerie.  Victor was my guide professionally in Russia. But he was much more than this.  He and Galina and Valerie provided me with perspectives on history, and on life past and present in every dimension; and, through trips we took together, I experienced the country in a way I never otherwise would have had.  I am immensely grateful to them.  And always will be. 

There has been one other factor cementing my attachment to Russia, and that is the deep conviction that the United States and Russia must and can work together on certain key issues if we are to have the world we all seek.  I refer particularly to working together on terrorism and nuclear proliferation.  If we don't lead on these issues, we will not achieve the progress and the safety the world's future depends on.  It is that simple. 

Still, as I said earlier, with all of these attractions, admirations and perhaps infatuations, it goes a step too far to say I "love" Russia.  There are two reasons I conclude this.

Most of all, I do not feel I know Russia and its people well enough to be entitled to say I love them. 

And truth be told, there are aspects of its history, especially in peoples' treatment of each other, that lead me to stop short of making that declaration.  I feel that more having made my latest trip, with the exposure it gave me to the gulags and liquidation of people.  

I would not want this statement to be too judgmental in a relative sense.  I am well aware of the violation of others' rights carried out by people of all nationalities and at all times, including our own nation with our treatment of blacks, Native Americans and other minorities.  It is sadly an element of human nature to look down on "otherness" sometimes to the point of dismissing the right to freedom for others to the point of annihilation.  We must continue to draw on our better natures to treat others with the dignity everyone deserves. 

Re-reading all of this, I probably make too much of the issue.  I indulge in conducting a debate with myself.  So be it.  I wanted to reflect on a subject I have thought about deeply.  And that is important to me.  The words and thoughts flowed and we are now an hour closer to landing in New York.   And I enjoyed doing it. 

I will conclude these reflections with the final words of my book, “Russian Tide.”

“As I consider the adventures and challenges, not only in Russia but throughout my entire career at P&G, one constant shines through:  the people I’ve worked with and how they live by their values.  This is what I was least able to imagine when I joined P&G – the quality of P&G people and the inspiration they have provided me by what they have done and how they have done it.  Never did I feel that more strongly than during my time in Russia.  Above all, the people at P&G Russia are why my experience in that country has meant so much to me, and I think to all of us who were privileged to be part of building the P&G Russia business.  The people of P&G Russia have made their business the best it can be.  Knowing them and their work, I am certain that, for P&G Russia, the best is yet to come.”

JEP:pmc

ReflectionsonRussia_091714

THE "PLAGUE OF THE OTHER"

Numerous passages in Ecstatic Nation, an outstanding book by Brenda Wineapple, bring to life “the plague of the other” which is at the root of so much evil and such an embedded part, sadly, of human nature.  It is a demonstration of that all-too-present human tendency to elevate ourselves by comparing ourselves invidiously with “another” different from us, perhaps even threatening us, with whom we compare ourselves, ever so positively, and whom, because of this feeling, we come to the belief that we have every right to exploit them.

The first of these examples lies in the mind and words of Alexander Stephens, who became Vice-President of the Confederacy, having served in Congress for many years.

The “cornerstone” of the Confederate States, he said, “rests upon the great truth that the Negro is not equal to the white man; that slavery—subordination to the superior race—is his natural and normal condition.”  Speaking impromptu in Savannah, GA a few weeks after the inauguration of the Confederate government, he enthusiastically called the new Confederate government “the first in the history of the world, based upon this great philosophical, and moral truth.”  Its constitution has “put at rest forever all agitating questions relating to our peculiar institution—African slavery as it exists among us—the proper status of the Negro in our form of civilization.”  

Roll the clock forward and we come to our treatment of the Indians.  General Sherman, the same general that had waged war so effectively against the Confederacy in his march to Atlanta and the sea, declared, as Brenda Wineapple says so acutely “with typical amoral clarity” the following:  “The country is so large and the advantage of the Indian so great, that we cannot make a single war and end it.  From the nature of things we must take chances and clear out Indians as we encounter them.”  (General Sheridan, a Union General who fought the Confederacy, mirrored Sherman’s attitude as he remarked:  “The only good Indians I know are dead.”) 

The justification for this was deeply embedded in the warped minds of many people who, looked at today, one would say should have known better.  Take Francis Amasa Walker.  Walker served as Commissioner in the government’s Bureau of Indian Affairs in 1871-72.  He was a well-known economist and Eugenicist and, if that wasn’t enough of a pedigree, he later was the President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.  

This well-educated and well-positioned man had this to say about the Indian:  “The Indian is unfortunately disposed to submit himself to the lower and baser elements of civilized society and to acquire the vices and not the virtues of the whites.”  

One journalist had this to say:  “To talk of the rights of the Indian today requires the same nerve and moral courage and conscientiousness it did 20 years ago to talk of the rights of the slave and the man who has searched them is considered just as mad, foolish and visionary as were the Abolitionists of 1840 or 1850.”

The New York Herald had this contentious comment to make about Wendell Phillips, the long-suffering, courageous leader for freedom of all sorts, including the African-American:  “Wendell Phillips’ new nigger is the ‘noble Redman’.”

Wendell Phillips had it right as he said:  “All the great points of the epoch have arisen out of this hatred between the races.”  To which Brenda Wineapple reprises:  “Race was, had been and would continue to be the issue dividing the United States.”  

The plague of “the other.”  On and on it goes.  Throughout all time.  To be resisted in each of our lives.  We see it today with Sunni vs. Shiite, right-wingers vs. left-wingers.  “We should never be able to be just to other races (or I’d add, people who are different from ourselves), or will reap the full benefit of their neighborhood, till we unlearn contempt,” Phillips said.  

To which I would add:  “Let us never fail to strive to see the other person in ourselves and ourselves in him.”

EcstaticNation_TheOther070714

EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CHILDREN – WHAT DOES IT ENTAIL?

“No great improvements in the lot of mankind are possible, until a great change takes place in the fundamental constitution of their modes of thought.”

                                                                                                            John Stuart Mill

It was in reading this famous observation that, I came to realize that we do not have a cohesive, fit-for-the-times framework to address two critical questions:

What does “equal opportunity” for children entail?

What portion of that should be underwritten and provided by the state and what part left to private or individual means?

I have chosen to address these two questions within the historic commitment our nation made in the Declaration of Independence:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness – that to secure these Rights, governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the government.”

What exactly do these “unalienable Rights of Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness” entail?  And when we say that it is to “secure these Rights that governments are instituted among Men,” what exactly is the government’s obligation?  To do what, for whom?

These are profound questions which have been debated, legislated, adjudicated and written about since the very founding of our nation.  These questions have been answered differently at different points in history.  Most glaringly, the Right to Liberty was denied for almost a century to enslaved men and women following the Declaration of Independence.  The Right to vote was denied for many women until 1920. 

It is not my intent to address the history of the on-going debate over individual Rights. 

I will try, however, to address a narrower but, especially today, vital aspect of this question of what are the “unalienable Rights” that should be “secured” by the government. 

Specifically, I will address this question:  What do we mean when we commit to provide “equality of opportunity” for children as they grow up;  what Rights does that entail and what portion of securing those Rights should be underwritten and provided by the government? 

At the outset, we must acknowledge an overarching reality:  More than any other factor, a child’s development depends more on how his or her parents foster their child’s development, including what is enabled by their economic circumstances and educational background.  Obviously, these conditions cannot in any meaningful sense be made equal and it would be (and has proven to be) folly to try.  It is in the context of this reality that we must strive to answer the question of what we can and must do to provide children with the opportunity so that--as we say in the Declaration of Independence--they are able to “pursue their unalienable Rights of Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.” 

I submit that the Rights to which children are entitled include an environment that is safe, good health and a good education.  These, I believe, are basic Rights which must be secured by the government. 

In this paper, I will focus exclusively on education—specifically early childhood education.

My major contention:  Quality Pre-Kindergarten Education is A “Right” For All Children.

I believe that we have now reached a sufficient level of knowledge and evidence to conclude that making quality pre-K education available for all children, regardless of their family’s economic means, is a basic Right in the same way that providing quality K-12 education for all children is acknowledged as a “Right” in our Nation.  As such, quality pre-K education calls for public funding just as K-12 education does.  We have learned that quality pre-K is an essential, even more important, part of the education continuum.  We should no more fail to fund it than fail to fund Kindergarten or the 1^st or 2^nd grades.

To repeat, I believe the evidence now available clearly indicates that providing a quality pre-Kindergarten experience should be taken as an obligation of the state just as is providing K-12 education.  While funding streams will be shared by the federal, state and local governments, the overwhelming majority of the funding will properly come from the state and local levels, just as it is with K-12 education. 

There are four reasons why I contend that public funding for high quality pre-K must not be seen as a “nice to do” benefit—a benefit to be implemented when we can afford it.  Rather, it must be seen as a fundamental Right, just like K-12 education.  Here is why:

1.     It is morally correct:  it is a fundamental necessity if all children are to have as approximate an equal opportunity to develop as can be provided recognizing the overarching role of the family.

2.     It is socially correct:  there is no other way that our nation’s young adult men and women, as a whole, will be able to prosper in the competitive world of the future.

3.     It is financially correct:  evidence shows that the investment required to provide this development and educational experience will pay for itself many-fold in lower costs (i.e., less remediation, fewer repeat grades, lower criminal activity and incarceration) and from higher incomes and the taxes derived therefrom.  As an intervention, it has been proven that quality pre-K provides a far higher return on investment than any other intervention in the education continuum. 

4.     It is the only credible response to competitive pressure from the many other countries which are already providing quality pre-K education to a far higher percentage of their three and four-year-olds than our Nation is today.

I recognize that calling for public funding support for pre-Kindergarten education for all children as a Right in the same way we do for K-12 education is a bold contention.  It demands a very high level of support.  Here is that support.

There is compelling evidence that quality pre-K education has a significant impact on a child’s development which lasts throughout his or her years of education and life.  We have evidence for this today that we did not have 10 years ago.  In brief, here is what we know.

1.     Quality pre-K and Kindergarten education dramatically improves Kindergarten readiness as measured on well-qualified tests among students of all incomes.

KRA-L Scores*

By Income and Duration of Preschool Experience

                                                No Center-                  Center Based                           Center Based

                                                Based Program            Program-1 Yr. or less              Program-1+Yr.

            Low Income**                        15.8                             18.5                                         19.6

            Other Income                          19.8                             22.4                                         23.7

            As you’ll see, on average a center-based program of more than one year lifts

            children from low-income families to “ready for Kindergarten” levels.

2.     In turn, being ready for Kindergarten dramatically impacts third grade reading proficiency.  Specifically, research conducted in Southwestern Ohio shows that 85% of those children testing ready for Kindergarten were reading on-grade by the end of the third grade whereas only 43% of those children not ready for Kindergarten were reading on-grade.

3.     This doubling of the percentage of children reading proficiently is enormously significant because third grade reading proficiency correlates dramatically with graduation rates.  A child not reading proficiently at the end of the third grade is four times more likely to drop out than one who is.  And if they are from a poor family, they are 11 times more likely to drop out before completing high school.

*This measure is used to assess Kindergarten readiness as children enter Kindergarten in the State of Ohio.  A score of 19 or better is considered “ready for kindergarten.”

**Low income in this study is defined as 185% of the Federal Poverty line and below or qualifying for free and reduced lunch.

4.     Finally, high school graduation*** and educational attainment beyond high school have an enormous impact on earnings, employment and a person’s health and success throughout life.  Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows the following as of 2013: 

Median Weekly Earnings and Unemployment Rates

Ages 25+ by Educational Attainment

                                                                        Average

                                                                        Weekly

Earnings          Unemployment Rate (%)

            Less than H.S. diploma                       $  472                         11.0

            H.S. Diploma                                      $  651                         7.5

            Associate Degree                                $  777                         5.4

            Bachelor’s Degree                               $1,108                        4.0     

            Master’s Degree                                 $1,329                        3.4

What we have learned is very simple and very important.  Quality pre-K education for a child influences all that follows—cognitively, socially and emotionally.  It significantly increases the likelihood of high school completion and, beyond that, entry into higher education with the better paying jobs which such education offers.

I want to especially emphasize how important starting early is for children born into families with lower income.  Consider this sobering fact:  For children born around 1980, college completion among students in the lowest income quartile was only 9%.  That compares to 54% college completion for children in the upper income quartile.  We can’t change all the factors impacting children who come from different household income levels.  But one think we can change is ensuring that all children, regardless of the income of their parents, receive a quality start.****

It also goes without saying that the influence of educational attainment extends beyond earnings and employment.  It impacts family formation, health and the likelihood of being involved in criminal activity.  In the latter regard, it is a shocking fact that 70% of incarcerated men and women are high school dropouts.

***The high school overall dropout rate is estimated at 20%.  By race and ethnicity:   White students - 14%; Black students - 31%; Hispanic students - 26%; Asian students - 12%.  (National Center for Education Statistics)

****”The Diploma Gap Between Rich and Poor,” Peter R. Orzag, BloombergView, March 5, 2013.

Given the above facts, it is not surprising that studies following students over several decades who received quality pre-Kindergarten education show significant cost-effective benefits.  They stem from a combination of 1) higher incomes attributable to higher education and 2) lower costs attributable to less special education, fewer repeated grades and lower costs in the criminal justice system.*****

Now, if everyone could afford quality pre-K on their own or if adequate funds could be provided through philanthropy, there might be no need for public support.  That is not the case.  At a cost of $8,000-10,000 per year, quality pre-K represents about 20% of the median average income of about $43,000, and for a person making $12 per hour, it represents over 30% of his or her salary.  Plainly unaffordable.

Philanthropy does help.  In the Cincinnati community, for example, the United Way funds pre-K and in-home visiting programs.  Still, combining philanthropy and existing government support, we are providing less than 30% of our population with quality pre-K experience.******   

This gets down to the basic issues of fairness and financial common sense.  I see no reason why a Nation committed to equal opportunity should have children and grandchildren born into families like my own, receive the benefit of a quality pre-K experience—an experience which we now know significantly impacts their entire lives—while children born into poorer families are denied that benefit.  This is especially true because we now know that quality pre-K programs provide a very attractive return on investment.  Put bluntly, I call them a “financial no-brainer.” 

*****See “Dollars and Sense:  A Review of Economic Analysis of Pre-K,” May 2007, particularly the reviews of the High/Scope Perry Pre-School Program; Chicago Child-Parent Centers and the Carolina Abecedarian Project.

******CEECO policy report—May 2014.  See Appendix A for the impact of poverty on enrollment and quality pre-K. 
 *****

A few asides:

·      In providing quality pre-Kindergarten education, there are questions that need to be answered.  For example:

a.     To what extent should public support be means-tested, providing lower support to families with higher incomes?  I believe that means testing should be a fundamental component of any system.

b.     Should public support cover both three and four-year-olds?  I believe the answer is yes.  There is substantial evidence that two years of pre-school is close to two times as effective as one year.

·      Pre-K education should be voluntary. 

·      While Pre-K education is essential, it is not a silver bullet.  Particularly for poor families, wraparound services providing health care for the child and his or her parents, as well as job placement and additional education where appropriate, are critical.

*****

In the end, what I am calling for is nothing more or less than providing equal opportunity—a fair chance, if you will--to children, as best we can, recognizing the overriding influence of a child’s family.  In this regard, I hearken back to the words of President John F. Kennedy as he challenged the Nation to support legislation that eventually emerged as the Civil Rights Act of 1964.  Shortly before his assassination in fall 1963, he addressed the discrimination inflicted on African-American children.

“This is one country.  It has become one country because all of us and all the people who came here had an equal chance to develop their talents.  We cannot say to 10% of the population that you can’t have that Right; your children cannot have the chance to develop whatever talents they have...as I have said before, not every child has an equal talent or an equal ability or equal motivation, but they should have the equal Right to develop their talent and their ability.”

Fifty years ago, President Kennedy challenged the nation to give children the equal Right to develop their talents regardless of their race.  Today we are challenging ourselves to give children that Right regardless of their family’s income.

I hope and pray that will happen soon.  In truth, I believe it will.  The evidence is too strong, the cause too right to be denied.  The public understands this.  Recent polls show that 70% of American voters favor a plan to use public funds to make pre-school available to all children in our Nation.  Now, we must muster the political will to make it happen.  We must act quickly so that future generations of young people have the opportunity which they deserve and our Nation desperately needs.

As Krista Ramsey of the Cincinnati Enquirer poignantly writes:

“There really is a sense of urgency–of a clock ticking–for us to get this right because the developmental windows narrow if not close.  We keep acting like we can push a “Pause” button with young children’s learning–as if, if we get this thing wrong, we can just put them into a learning environment whenever we like, and all will be well.  I think people would be appalled if we stopped a young child from walking–just held him back!–or from talking, or learning to feed himself, etc.  It would border on abuse. 

There is another extraordinarily important point Krista makes: 

“Inequality in early childhood opportunities sets people up for a lifetime of inequality:  lower test scores, fewer educational options, lower confidence, fewer career options, lower earnings.  Why on earth would we pour so many resources into trying to close “achievement gaps” at 14 and “earning gaps” at 25, when we ignored the inequality at the educational/cognitive starting gate?  How financially foolish.”

  How financially foolish, indeed.  And how morally wrong.  So let’s get on with it—NOW!

"ABOUT AS BAD AS IT GETS"

“About as Bad as it Gets”

Normally, I don’t comment on what is happening on the national and international levels in these notes.  However, the recent developments demand a quick comment.

I can’t recall ever seeing so many parts of the world and parts of our nation’s policy unraveling at once.  We have the extreme terrorist group ISIS taking over Mosul and driving south in Iraq.  Obama will be blamed for having pulled out of Iraq too fast.  But there was no evident game-winning plan I could see.  Clearly President Maliki has been driving a huge wedge between the Shiites (his party) and Sunnis.  The Kurds have moved in on the north.  Iraq is out of control.  If you are a parent of a service person who lost their life in Iraq, you would feel more than sick.  You would be angry.

The airport in Karachi, Pakistan came under a vicious attack, almost 30 dead.

Our service people in Afghanistan are being killed at high rates with no promise whatsoever of when we leave.

“What has Bush’s war wrought?”  Sadly, the question answers itself.

And with all this going on, with the possibility that perhaps the U.S. and Russia working together would help forge a plan to control the inferno in Iraq and which continues in Syria, we are at loggerheads with Russia, failing to negotiate maturely on what can be done to support the development of a peaceful Ukraine that respects Russia’s and the West’s and, above all, Ukraine’s own interests.

Turning to our own nation, the polarization becomes even worse.  Eric Cantor, a conservative if there ever was one, is defeated in the Virginia primary by somebody even to his right.  This is the unexpected spoils of the gerrymandering which the Republicans have so vigorously advanced, creating a world that if you are not far to the right or far to the left you may not even have a chance in what is altogether a predictable general election for one party or the other. 

Any chances of meaningful legislation during the remainder of Obama’s term, distant to start with, are off the table.  All the talk about early childhood, substantive immigration reform, revision of the tax code which everyone agrees is arcane and resulting in business moving off-shore, all that is off the table. 

A recent poll conducted by Pew Research Center shows that this polarization is not just a function of Washington but of a large minority of people.  We are at a point where 30% of consistent conservatives say they would be unhappy if an immediate family member married a Democrat while 23% of consistent liberals say the same thing.  The division appears in other striking statistics of this survey.  Far more liberals than conservatives think it is important for a community to have racial and ethnic diversity (76% versus 20%), while far more conservatives than liberals attach importance to living in a place where people share their religious faith (57% versus 17%).

And the degree to which politically engaged Democrats or Republicans hold consistently liberal views or conservative views has gone up significantly.  For Democrats up from just 8% in 1994 to 38% today; for Republicans up from 23% in 1994 and 10% in 2004 to 33% being consistently Conservative today.

All of this cries out for a President in the next term who can really unify the country.  I cannot imagine that being anyone whose last name is either Clinton or Bush.  I hope we can find this individual and that he or she will be successful in gaining office.

In the meantime, we will work within our own “circles of influence” to do all we can.

Marx and Piketty and the Driving Impact of Poverty on Income and Wealth Inequality

Marx predicted growing class polarization and the disappearance of the middle class in societies based on a market economy. For more than a century the growth of the middle class and for a considerable period the narrowing of inequality 

proved that thesis wrong. Times are changing. We are becoming more bi-modal in income than at any time in the last hundred years. 

Piketty asserts that there will be a continuing greater return on capital than on labor, this driving further inequality. 

Driving this trend further is what is happening in education, the pre-cursor to what a person will earn in his/her career.

Children from wealthy families go to quality pre-K schools in far greater numbers than children from poor families do. These children enter kindergarten far more ready to learn with a far larger working vocabulary and up to an 18 months head start.

From that flow the likelihood of reading on grade by the end of the third grade, high school graduation,etc.

Now, in the last 24 hours I encounter these data:

FROM PAUL TOUGH ARTICLE "WHO GETS TO GRADUATE"; NYT MAGAZINE 5/18/2014

-About 25% of children born into the bottom half of the income distribution will have a bachelors degree by age 24.

-In contrast 90% of children born into families in top quartile will have the degree by age 24.

-And it is not just a question of basic ability. The graduation rate for students having about an average SAT score of 1,000-1,199 is 20% for students in the bottom income quartile and 67% in the top income quartile. 

-About 63% of students born into the bottom income quintile will move up to one of the top three quintiles (about 20% in each)  if they have a college degree. If they don't have a college degree

only about 33% will move up and with only about 5% in the top quintile. 

-40% of American students who start at a 4 year college haven/t earned a degree after 6 years. Rich kids tend to finish. Poor kids tend not to. 

If we are to have the best educated and prepared work force in the future, which we must it we are the country we need to be,  we must make transformational funding interventions to support poor families and children.

How?

1. Government (federal, state and local) funded pre-K for all children. Government funded home visiting for those in highest need.

2. Greater aid for college students.

3. Greater use of 2 year community and technical colleges. Four year college is not for all. 

As we have seen separately, the investments to provide these interventions all pay back multi-fold.

John

Russia-Ukraine-United States and the West

“There’s Plenty Of Blame To Go Around—Now Is The Time for Mature Leaders

To Step Forward To Take The Right Action For The Future”

April 2014

The most recent turn in the “up and down” relationship among Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the West has been a dismaying sight over the past month or so.  It is the culmination of a number of decisions that might have been different and some historical realities that won’t change.  And, as I reflect how this current situation might have been avoided, there is, I believe, “plenty of blame to go around.”

It is vital to view the situation from the perspectives of all sides, bearing the historical realities and current circumstances of all parties in mind.

Looking back at the almost 25 years of involvement I have had in Russia and the ex-Soviet Union since 1989, there have been many times when I believed the United States could have done things differently.

During the challenging ‘90s, we could have provide greater financial, technical and moral support.  We could have gone further in recognizing Russia as a partner.   We never did anything approximating what is now being offered to Ukraine ($27 billion; I only hope that it will happen; similar “promises” have gone wanting) or what we did in the Marshall Plan.  As then-Ambassador Jack Matlock reflected on the United States’ role in the reconstruction of Russia’s economy*:  “My point is not that the Bush administration, or the Clinton administration that followed it, is responsible for the mistakes that were made as the Soviet Union abandoned the command economy and Russia subsequently created a market economy.  They are not.  However, it is clear that most of the assistance and advice given by the West was not particularly helpful.  It was based more on a free-market fundamentalism than on the real problems of creating a market economy out of a collapsed command economy, much of the initial advice was not only useless, but sometimes actually damaging.”

Following that, the West moved to expand NATO into the bordering regions around Russia, including Poland (1999), the Baltics (2004) and Romania (2004) and Bulgaria (1994).  Then, and of greatest concern to Russia, we advanced the idea of extending NATO to Ukraine and Georgia as well as installing ABM launchers in Poland and the Czech Republic.  With the animosity still overhanging from the Cold War era, this might have been seen in the U.S. as akin to the Soviet Union’s earlier extending the Warsaw Pact to Cuba or Central America. 

*”Superpower Illusions” (pg. 110)

Yes, the expansion was done with a benign intention (defensive) but, to a country that had been attacked many times, it looked to many like a surrounding effort.   At a minimum, it fueled the animus of those who wanted to interpret it that way.  It fed the worst fears and allegations of those who wanted to “go back.”

As former Secretary of War, Robert Gates, says in his new book, “Duty:  Memoirs of a Secretary of War”:   “When I took office in 2007, I had shared with the president my belief that from 1993 onward, the West, and particularly the United States, had badly underestimated the magnitude of Russian humiliation in losing the Cold War and then in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, which amounted to the end of the centuries-old Russian Empire.  The arrogance, after the collapse, of American government officials, academicians, businessmen, and politicians in telling the Russians how to conduct their domestic and international affairs (not to mention the internal psychological impact of their precipitous fall from superpower status) had led to deep and long-term resentment and bitterness.” 

Gates continued:  “What I didn’t tell the president was that I believed the relationship with Russia had been badly mismanaged after Bush 41 left office in 1993.  Getting Gorbachev to acquiesce to a unified Germany as a member of NATO had been a huge accomplishment.  But moving so quickly after the collapse of the Soviet Union to incorporate so many of its formerly subjugated states into NATO was a mistake.  Including the Baltic states, Poland, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary quickly was the right thing to do, but I believe the process should then have slowed.  U.S. agreements with the Romanian and Bulgarian governments to rotate troops through bases in those countries was a needless provocation (especially since we virtually never deployed the 5,000 troops to either country).  The Russians had long historical ties to Serbia, which we largely ignored.  Trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching.  The roots of the Russian Empire trace back to Kiev in the ninth century, so that was an especially monumental provocation.”

It was also natural for Putin to view the West’s strong support for Kosovo’s separating from Russia’s long-supported ally of Serbia as violating the rights of the Serbian state.  (To be clear, in my view, Kosovo’s achieving independence was the right outcome.)  And especially in hindsight, Russia viewed the invasion of Iraq as an unsanctioned act by the United States and by some Western countries to overthrow a sovereign leader based on weak, if not manufactured, allegations that Saddam Hussein was in the final stages of developing weapons of mass destruction. 

These realities were combined with enormous and, for me, overblown sensitivity on Putin’s part, grown in part, I suspect, from his career in the KGB.  To say that he became paranoid about the intentions of the United States would not be an over-statement.  And he surely saw it as a means of strengthening his own popularity at a time when it was declining.

More recently, I believe Putin has greatly exaggerated the mistreatment of Russians in Ukraine, including Crimea.  Characterization of the folks who went into Maidan Square as “Russia-phobes and Neo-Nazis” has been hyperbolic.  Surely there were some such people there, but to define the entire group in these terms in ludicrous.  Most of them surely simply wanted release from a corrupt and ineffective government.

Finally, we should not be surprised at the reaction that Putin and others in Russia had to the overturning of the agreement that had been reached on February 22 by Yanukovych and other Western countries before the ink was scarcely dry.  This agreement would have probably led to an election by the end of the year which would have voted Yanukovych out of office.  If one believes, as Putin certainly does (and there are reasons for this belief), that the movement in Maidan Square which led to the ouster of Yanukovych was incited to some degree by the West, one could take it as license to act.

And that’s exactly what Putin did.  I believe he seized on this as an “excuse” to move into Crimea.  It is obviously a purely personal judgment, but I don’t believe if that agreement had been allowed to unfold through the end of the calendar year, Russia would have moved to have the referendum for independence in Crimea or have absorbed it as they have. 

What’s more, I believe, Putin’s/Russia’s absorption of Crimea will prove to be a costly mistake for Russia and its people.  It will be a financial drain in its own right.  It has already produced sanctions, capital flight, a weaker ruble and it will, at least for a time, dampen foreign direct investment.  Nevertheless, we are where we are.

Stepping back, Russia has always had and always will have different interests than the United States and the West; some geographical, some ideological in nature.  For example, Russia is far more dedicated to the preservation of existing governments—to very strong governments--that are more autocratic than we believe is right.  The United States acclaims much greater allegiance to individual democracy, to individual rights, to everyone speaking up.

But, with all that, there are two things that are of paramount importance:

1.     There are many critical issues such as nuclear proliferation, combating terrorism, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, on which it is absolutely critical that Russia, the United States and the West and the entire world work together on cooperatively. 

2.     Alienating and isolating Russia will significantly impede that cooperation.

********

So, what now? 

1.     We need to clearly define what we will not tolerate (e.g., any incursion into Ukraine or other independent country).

2.     We should recognize that Russia’s annexation of Crimea is not going to be overturned.

3.     We need to try to agree on what is in the common interest of our countries and the world.

4.     We need to identify the specific agenda items which we need to work together.

5.     We need quiet, tough-minded, no-nonsense, respectful interchanges among leaders in Russia, Ukraine, the United States and the West—leaders who understand each other’s history, culture and contemporary realities.⁽¹⁾

I would like to add here the excellent perspective provided to me by a Professor of Russian History at the University of Cincinnati, Willard Sunderland.

“The only point I’d suggest adding to your piece is that we should do everything we can to de-emphasize the neo-Cold War rhetoric and casual anti-Russian prejudice that has crept into the way our politicians and journalists/pundits tend to describe Russia.  There are too many simplifications in the way we are representing things, and there’s the risk that our simplifications will work against us.

Russia today is not the Soviet Union.  We are not on the edge of a titanic global contest between “our way” and “their way.”  You are absolutely right – we have nothing to gain from isolating the country.  Likewise, though Putin is most definitely not a Western liberal or conservative, as all our TV talking heads are telling us, he’s also not a Brezhnev or an Andropov.  I see him as a Russian statist conservative in the mold of the last great tsarist premiere Petr Stolypin.  He wants a strong Russian state and a stable international neighborhood, while also supporting Russia’s full engagement with the world.  I do not think that there’s a plan afoot to gather up the lands of the old USSR motivated by some sort of imperial nostalgia.  He’s not interested in a lot of difficult and costly border changes.  He is a pragmatist more than he is an ideologue.  And he’s also, in my view, far from in charge of everything we’re seeing.  He’s hardly a grand master poring over a would-be chess board, moving every piece exactly where he wants it.  I think he and the Russian power establishment were as shocked by Yanukovich’s flight from Kiev as anyone else.  Much of what’s happened since then has been more opportunism than master strategy.  Putting all of this together, I see a situation in which there is every reason to work with Putin rather than to double-down against him.  To that end, I think your last point is dead on:  firm engagement is the key.  Quiet, persistent, firm engagement.”

That is what we need now!

 ⁽¹⁾ I’d note this is the kind of interchange that in times past was conducted by leaders like

George Schultz and Eduard Shevardnadze.  I believe former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Jack Matlock, was absolutely right in crediting the cultural sensitivity of certain U.S. leaders as a key factor in establishing good relations with their Russian counterparts:  “One of the keys to the success that Reagan, Schultz, Bush and Baker had in engaging the Soviet leaders,” Matlock writes, “was their attention to this factor [culture].  Reagan may not have mastered every detail of every arms control negotiation…but he spent as much time trying to understand Gorbachev’s thinking and the political constraints on his behavior as he did studying the ‘substance’ of the issues.  George Schultz was acutely aware that Eduard Shevardnadze, a Georgian, was immensely proud of this cultural heritage.  By showing interest in it and respect for it, Schultz was able to establish a degree of personal rapport with the Soviet Foreign Minister that helped them come to terms on issues that had resisted solution for decades.  James Baker picked up where Shultz left off and continued the relationship that benefitted both countries.”*

*”Superpower Illusions” (pg. 74)

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